Our co-founder Phil Tetlock wrote the book on state‑of‑the‑art crowd‑sourced forecasting.
Now the training, techniques and talent that helped the Good Judgment Project
win a massive four‑year US‑government‑sponsored forecasting tournament can help your organization manage strategic uncertainty.
Our forecasting services provide insight into complex global challenges.Robust probability forecasts pave the way for decisive action.
Participate in our public forecasting tournament
and improve your power of prediction.
THE SCIENCE OF SUPERFORECASTING
Our services are based on peer‑reviewed research using randomized controlled trials, the scientific "gold standard."
GJ co-founder Phil Tetlock's New York Times bestseller Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction is now available in paperback in the US. The Wall Street Journal called Superforecasting the "most important book on decision making since Daniel Kahneman's Thinking, Fast and Slow."
GJ’s Eva Chen Wins Exeter Prize
GJ Managing Director Eva Chen and co-author David Budescu of Fordham University are this year's recipients of the Exeter Prize for their research on scoring methods for crowd-sourced forecasts. The Exeter Prize is awarded by the University of Exeter to the best paper published in the previous calendar year in a peer-reviewed journal in the fields of Experimental Economics, Decision Theory and Behavioral Economics.
Arab Strategy Forum Challenge Launches on GJ Open
What will the state of the world be in 2017? The Arab Strategy Forum is collaborating with Good Judgment Inc to launch a forecasting challenge about key issues impacting the Middle East. The crowd-based forecasts will be considered at the annual Forum, where international leaders gather to discuss urgent issues facing the region and draw up measurable and achievable responses.