Good Judgment's research findings point to four main determinants of forecasting accuracy:
The following figure illustrates the approximate relative importance of these effects.
For the formal research, please refer to The Literature.
- talent-spotting to identify the best forecasters;
- training to reduce cognitive biases and implement the best forecasting practices;
- placing forecasters in teams to deliver the benefits of collaboration and cognitive diversity; and
- aggregating forecasts in a way that 'extremizes' the wisdom of the crowd
towards a higher degree of confidence and gives more weight to forecasters who have a proven track record and update frequently.