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Talent-Spotting, Training, Teaming and Aggregation
Our Evidence-Based Formula for Enhanced Accuracy
Good Judgment's research findings point to four main determinants of forecasting accuracy:
  • talent-spotting to identify the best forecasters;
  • training to reduce cognitive biases and implement the best forecasting practices;
  • placing forecasters in teams to deliver the benefits of collaboration and cognitive diversity; and
  • aggregating forecasts in a way that 'extremizes' the wisdom of the crowd towards a higher degree of confidence and gives more weight to forecasters who have a proven track record and update frequently.
The following figure illustrates the approximate relative importance of these effects. For the formal research, please refer to The Literature.
FormulaForAccuracy
The above figure illustrates the approximate relative importance of these effects. For the formal research, please refer to The Literature.

The Literature