Philip Tetlock’s Edge Master Class #1: What We Discover When We Start Scoring Accuracy

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“It is as though high status pundits have learned a valuable survival skill, and that survival skill is they’ve mastered the art of appearing to go out on a limb without actually going out on a limb. …  forecasting tournaments are a very different way of proceeding. Forecasting tournaments require people to attach explicit probabilities to well-defined outcomes in well-defined time frames so you can keep score.”

Click HERE to view the Edge Master Class 2015: A Short Course in Superforecasting, Class 1

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