Philip Tetlock’s Edge Master Class #3: The Elusive Control Groups in Policy Debates

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“For E.H. Carr, counterfactuals were a pestilence, they were a frivolous parlor game, a methodological rattle, a sore loser’s history…  Many historians do still agree, in some form, with E.H. Carr. Virtually all economic historians would agree with Robert Fogel, who’s one of the pivital people in economic history; he won a Nobel Prize. But there’s this very interesting tension between people who are more open or less open to thinking about counterfactuals. Why that is, is something that is worth exploring.”

Click HERE to view the Edge Master Class 2015: A Short Course in Superforecasting, Class 3

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