Philip Tetlock’s Edge Master Class #4: Superforecasting Requires “Counterfactualizing”

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“A famous economist, Albert Hirschman, had a wonderful phrase, “self-subversion” … Self-subversion is an integral part of what makes superforecasting cognition work. It’s the willingness to tolerate dissonance. It’s hard to be an extremist when you engage in self-subverting counterfactual cognition.”

Click HERE to view the Edge Master Class 2015: A Short Course in Superforecasting, Class 4

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