Phil Tetlock and Peter Scoblic in the NYT on “The Power of Precise Predictions”

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“[W]hen people make non-falsifiable predictions, they feel less accountable. After all, if a prediction can never be disproved, then it poses no reputational risk. That lack of accountability, in turn, encourages overconfidence and even more extreme predictions.  Non-falsifiable predictions thus undermine the quality of our discourse. They also impede our ability to improve policy, for if we can never judge whether a prediction is good or bad, we can never discern which ways of thinking about a problem are best. The solution is straightforward: Replace vague forecasts with testable predictions.”

Phil Tetlock and Peter Scoblic, New York Times, October 2, 2015

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