Phil Tetlock and Dan Gardner in The Telegraph on “We can learn to predict future events”

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“Forecasting today is like the field of medicine before it became truly scientific: a discipline in which experts are unreasonably confident in the quality of their work and customers trust the experts because they are confident… Proper testing changed everything… The US intelligence community (IC) is starting to understand this, and what it stands to gain by testing.”

Phil Tetlock and Dan Gardner, The Telegraph, October 30, 2015

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