What do you think will happen in the year 2016? Will the US elect a Republican or a Democrat to be the next president? Will Brazil’s president be impeached? How about oil prices, China’s renminbi, or the new Panama Canal? Here’s your chance to make a forecast.
The Economist and Good Judgment are jointly launching a forecasting challenge on the Good Judgment Open site, in conjunction with the publication of The World In 2016. We invite everyone to participate. Please sign up HERE.
The World in 2016 marks the 30th publication of annual predictions for the year ahead from The Economist. This year’s edition features a contribution by Philip Tetlock and Dan Gardner, co-authors of Superforecasting, who note: “As more people get serious about forecasting in 2016, the probability is high that their forecasting will improve—and so will their decision-making.”
To take that challenge, please start with the eight questions now posted at the Good Judgment Open. Then each week and into 2016, new questions will be posted that are inspired by The World In 2016 and breaking news as reported in The Economist. At the end of the challenge, the scores will be tallied and the winner will be announced in time for The World In 2017. Stay tuned for more updates as new questions are posted and the forecasts are scored.