Phil Tetlock and Dan Gardner in the WSJ on “Predict the Future: How to Improve the Accuracy of Forecasts”

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“A rising wind is finally blowing away the fog. And it’s about time. Clarity will be transformational. Clear forecasts can be measured for accuracy, and those measurements will increasingly reveal what improves forecasting and what doesn’t. How good could forecasting get in the future? We don’t know. But we do know that in other fields that transformed themselves this way, the improvements were spectacular.”

Phil Tetlock and Dan Gardner, Wall Street Journal, December 4, 2015

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