Today on on NPR Larry Summers did something rare among the alpha pundits: he was precise. When asked about the odds of a recession in the US, he bypassed vague expressions like “teetering” or “not likely.” Instead, Mr Summers affirmed “the chance of recession at 1 in 3” in the US, presumably in the next 12 months.
Now we can keep score. The Superforecasters currently have an 8% probability that the US economy will post two consecutive quarters of decline in 2016, a popular threshold for a recession. Larry Summers says 33%. What odds do you have?