Phil Tetlock and Peter Scoblic in The Washington Post on “We didn’t see Donald Trump coming. But we could have.”

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“Trump fits into the comparison class of system-destabilizing populists — from Huey Long to Ross Perot — pretty well. Just because politics is a complex system doesn’t mean we can’t make (and improve) political predictions. Indeed, assigning numerical odds to an event, even if doing so requires some guesses, improves the quality of political forecasts in the long run.”

J. Peter Scoblic and Philip E. Tetlock, The Washington Post, February 12, 2016

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