ThinkAdvisor on “Mastering the Game of Imperfect Forecasting”

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“The best forecasters are all curious, humble, self-critical, give weight to multiple perspectives and feel free to change their minds often…  But as Tim Richards has argued, we are both by design and by culture inclined to be anything but humble in our approach to investing. We invest with a certainty that we’ve picked winners and sell in the certainty that we can reinvest our capital to make more money elsewhere. We are usually wrong, often spectacularly wrong. These tendencies come from hardwired biases and also from emotional responses to our circumstances. But they also arise out of cultural requirements to show ourselves to be confident and decisive. Even though we should, we rarely reward those who show caution and humility in the face of uncertainty.”

Bob Seawright, May 23, 2016, ThinkAdvisor

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