Monkey Cage: “There are lots of dumb predictions about third parties. Here’s a smarter one.”

Posted on Posted in GJ Open, In the Media


The Washington Post‘s Monkey Cage blog highlighted a trend on Good Judgment Open that shows the chances of a third party candidate winning at least 5% of the popular vote in the 2016 US presidential election are rising:

In the past three weeks, the estimated chance went up from close to 0 percent to 25 percent. This is to say, the forecasters see a stronger possibility that a third party or independent candidate could reach a relatively rare threshold in the popular vote. “Stronger possibility” does not mean “very likely,” of course, because the current odds are only 1-in-4. Nevertheless, the trend is noteworthy. It could reflect the ongoing debate within the Republican Party about Donald Trump, the fact that the Libertarian Party nominated two unusually qualified candidates or other factors.

Check out the current consensus and sign up to make your own forecast.

John Sides, June 14, 2016, Monkey Cage


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