Jason Zweig inteviews Phil Tetlock on “The Perilous Task of Forecasting”

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“You should expect forecasters to do better to the degree they’re working in a world where they get quick, clear feedback on their forecasts. ‘Distinct possibility’ doesn’t count. You have to be making numerical probability estimates repeatedly over time on a wide range of outcomes. If you do that, you can learn to become one of the better-calibrated professionals.”

Jason Zweig, The Wall Street Journal, June 17, 2016

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