Monkey Cage: The odds for third-party success this year are getting better and better

Posted on Posted in GJ Open, In the Media


At the Washington Post‘s Monkey Cage blog, John Sides remarks on our Good Judgment Open question about the popular vote share for an independent or third-party candidate in the upcoming US presidential election. According to the GJ Open consensus, the chances that a candidate like Gary Johnson will win at least 5% of the popular vote have continued to rise to over 50%:


There is now slightly better than a 50-50 chance that a third party could get at least 5 percent of the popular vote. That’s striking.

Check out the current consensus and sign up to make your own forecast.

John Sides, August 10, 2016, Monkey Cage

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