At the Washington Post‘s Monkey Cage blog, John Sides remarks on our Good Judgment Open question about the popular vote share for an independent or third-party candidate in the upcoming US presidential election. According to the GJ Open consensus, the chances that a candidate like Gary Johnson will win at least 5% of the popular vote have continued to rise to over 50%:
There is now slightly better than a 50-50 chance that a third party could get at least 5 percent of the popular vote. That’s striking.
John Sides, August 10, 2016, Monkey Cage