Reuters story endorses Superforecasting methods

Posted on Posted in In the Media
Will OPEC agree to freeze output in Sept?
…”The most successful forecasters start by trying to define a base rate chance of something occurring and then adjust it up or down in the light of evidence about the specific circumstances in a particular case.

They begin with an ‘outside view’ and then proceed to adjust it with an ‘inside view’ based on the specifics of the case (“Superforecasting: the art and science of prediction”, Tetlock and Gardner, 2015)”…
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-oil-opec-kemp-idUSKCN10R152

John Kemp, August 16, 2016, Reuters

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