Monkey Cage: Is Trump hurting Republicans down-ballot?

Posted on Posted in GJ Open, In the Media


At the Washington Post‘s Monkey Cage blog, John Sides reviews the Good Judgment Open consensus on several questions about the GOP’s chances of success in the House and Senate.

Yes, the odds are against the Republicans’ retaining control of the Senate, though they will likely continue to control the House. But it’s still not clear that Trump is (yet) hurting Republicans running for Congress.

The GJ Open consensus predicts that Republicans are likely to lose control of the Senate to Democrats, with only a 38% probability of maintaining control, but are much more likely to retain control of the House (85%). Moreover, these probabilities have not changed much over the last few months, despite rumblings that Trump’s increasingly unconventional candidacy might hurt Republicans in House and Senate races.

Of course, this does not mean that no Republican candidates are in trouble (and perhaps partly due to Trump):


Of the three Senate races currently being forecast, two Republican Senators — Pat Toomey of Pennsylvania and especially Ron Johnson of Wisconsin — are in trouble. In both cases, their estimated chances of winning have trended down at least a little bit. Gov. Pat McCrory of North Carolina has also seen his estimated chance of winning slip below 50 percent.

On the other hand, Sen. Rob Portman of Ohio appears to be in a better position now: His estimated chances of winning have increased over time. This mirrors the trend in his polls, where he currently leads by five points. Of course, the forecast — a 65 percent chance that he will win — suggests this five-point lead isn’t certain to last.

Agree or disagree? Join the Monkey Cage US Election Challenge to make your own forecast on these and many other questions.

John Sides, August 24, 2016, Monkey Cage

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One thought on “Monkey Cage: Is Trump hurting Republicans down-ballot?

  1. Its too bad Trump didn’t connect with the progressive republican party of the past, Teddy Roosevelt, Charles Innes, Cal Coolidge and Dwight Eisenhower. Reagan and Bush – Chaney successfully repackaged RRepublicanism as conservative. Robert Dole and Mitch Romney might have fixed this quandry but aren’t around. Populism is a new flavor in US politics, and its going to spoil all the old categories. Check out the NEW REPUBLIC for an analysis of the new landscape. Jill Stein and Gary Johnson are the big winners and I wish they will debate the others.
    Plus Hillary won’t answer Trump’s challenge, reference open borders and ‘sanctuary cities’, which are a problem. Her book HARD CHOICES is, by the way, an excellent read. It will be used in future years as history for 2009 to 2012, the years of her Secretariat. Does anyone remember what is written on the SEAL of the Secretary in the office at Foggybottom? It says “Keeper of the State Secrets”. The Secretary’s conversations with the President and our ambassadors are indeed protected by Executive privilege, not to mention her personal, familial emails. The Administration might have claimed ‘executive privilege’ and sucessfully resisted the subpoenas, but didn’tAs policy-maker, the President really has the power to classify or de-classify anything he wants anytime via Executive Order 12350, so an indictment of Mrs. Clinton for lapses of security would be an empty exercise. Does anyone believe he wouldn’t pardon her, as Bush pardoned Chaney’s chief of staff?

    No, I’ve managed a campaign and seen quite a few up close, and Trump’s organization has been mismanaged.

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