Over at The Washington Post’s Monkey Cage blog, John Sides highlights the current consensus on our Good Judgment Open question about Donald Trump’s campaign spending. Since the question opened in June, the crowd’s forecast has gradually shifted towards indicating that Trump’s campaign will spend a historically low amount of cash prior to election day.
“About three months ago, the forecast for Trump was remarkable: There was a decent chance that Trump would spend less, in inflation-adjusted dollars, than did John McCain in 2008. McCain, let’s recall, accepted public funding for the general election and therefore had his fundraising and spending limited (unlike his opponent, Barack Obama, who did not accept public funding).
The forecast now is even more pessimistic, even as Trump reports $90 million in fundraising in August. Forecasters now give Trump a 73 percent chance of spending $250 million to $500 million.”
According to the consensus, there is an 82% chance that Trump’s campaign will spend less than $500 million by November 1st – which would be less than half the total that was spent on Mitt Romney’s campaign in 2012.
What does this say about Trump’s chances of winning the presidency? Check out the article to read what the political science literature says about the relationship between campaign spending and a candidate’s success, and join the US election challenge on GJ Open to add your voice to the crowd.