Monkey Cage: Gov. Pat McCrory’s reelection prospects are fading fast

Posted on Posted in GJ Open, In the Media

At the Washington Post’s Monkey Cage blog, John Sides continues his series of articles highlighting our US Election forecasting challenge with a post about our question on North Carolina Gov. Pat McCrory’s re-election chances.

McCrory has seen his fair share of controversy recently, as Sides notes:

The controversies during McCrory’s tenure are many. Early on, a spate of conservative legislation sparked the “Moral Monday” protests by some religious leaders. Most recently, HB2 (a.k.a. the “bathroom bill”) made headlines for requiring that in government buildings people use the bathroom corresponding to the sex on their birth certificate.

Since that bill’s passage, three different sports organizations have pulled major events from North Carolina — including the 2017 MLB All-Star Game, NCAA championship events and, last week, ACC tournament events. By one estimate, the state has already lost $400 million in revenue.


While forecasters on GJ Open initially thought that McCrory had an even chance at winning re-election, the consensus has steadily fallen to its current low of 30%.

On Wednesday, Gov. McCrory declared a state of emergency following protests in Charlotte after Keith Lamont Scott was shot and killed by police Tuesday afternoon.

You can follow the consensus and make your own forecast on this question by signing up for GJ Open.

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