Three Ways Superforecasting™ Enhances Scenario Planning

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Scenario planning helps organizations make better decisions about long-term, strategic options. Scenarios make alternative futures more salient to decision-makers, while highlighting the uncertainty around which scenario will materialize.

Here’s where Good Judgment comes in: Superforecasting can help quantify the uncertainty.  Good Judgment Superforecaster® and management consultant Kate Patterson describes three ways Superforecasting can support the development and monitoring of scenario plans.

 

  1. Monitor Early Indicators

While scenarios play out over long horizons, key events along the way can indicate whether a scenario is unfolding as expected. Good Judgment works with your team to convert scenarios into clusters of questions, where each question reflects a specific early indicator of trends. We can then tap into Superforecaster insights to evaluate the likelihood of those key events before they occur—from legislative changes to regulatory outcomes, from market shifts to technology trends, and more. Quantifying and monitoring these otherwise hard-to-measure trends enables organizations to revise their scenarios in real time, providing a competitive edge over those who simply wait to see how events transpire.

 

  1. Quantify Scenario Likelihood

Good Judgment harnesses the full potential of Superforecasting by systematically incorporating the probability of multiple, highly uncertain events into scenarios. We collaborate with your internal experts to assess the diagnosticity of each indicator question for the overall scenario. Our proprietary approach then builds the probabilities for each question into a heat index that informs the relative likelihood of scenario outcomes.

 

  1. Challenge Industry ‘Groupthink’

Many industries operate on a set of ‘known’ assumptions. A benefit of scenario planning is describing alternate futures that disrupt these assumptions. Strengthen that feature of scenario planning by tapping into the wisdom of Good Judgment’s certified Superforecasters: they come from diverse backgrounds and industries, are experts at challenging status quo thinking, and bring an outsider perspective for an independent assessment of outcomes. Decision makers can be assured they have the full range of views combined with the highest-quality set of probability estimates.

 

And there’s more. Good Judgment Inc can also facilitate an in-house tournament for your team on questions that inform your scenarios, accelerates internal learning, and helps ensure the full diversity of views on your team is integrated into the scenario planning and evaluation process.

Get in touch with us at info@goodjudgment.com to discuss the full range of services Good Judgment offers to support your scenario planning and decision making.

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