Can the ‘Davos Man’ forecast?

Posted on Posted in Superforecasting

Each year after Davos, stories are written about how the pundits ‘got it wrong’. This year, we started a collaboration with the World Economic Forum to keep score of these forecasts and to build a track record of WEF forecasting accuracy and calibration.

Our initial report on the forecasts that have been made is now available below. We will publish updates as questions are resolved over the coming months, with updated forecasts and commentary by Good Judgment Inc’s professional Superforecasters.

Good Judgment Forum Forecasting Challenge Report

Good Judgment collaborates with organizations making measurable improvements to decision-making and forecasting. Please get in touch with Kate Patterson at patterson@goodjudgment.com to discuss how we can improve your foresight.

 

Share on FacebookTweet about this on TwitterShare on LinkedInEmail this to someone

2 thoughts on “Can the ‘Davos Man’ forecast?

  1. The third Q surprised me because of such a high confidence- 95%. Would love to hear more about what made the experts think so.

  2. Matus: First, GJ forecasters aren’t experts; there just extremely informed and know what probability really means. Second, I thought the statements in the text were pretty clear in explaining the political calculus underpinning the high confidence reflected in the forecast : (1) Article 50 invocation is a clear break; such a declaration focuses the negotiations and delimits strategic options to penalize/dither by both parties; (2) getting it done quickly is important for the party in power so that other GB-centered Tory policy can be hammered out within the time remaining before the next general election; and (3) few English (vice Britons) are sincerely opposed to it and those who are can’t muster the public to stop it. When the courts, legislature and the autonomous Parliaments can’t (or won’t) stop it what can be expected? Of course, those conditions also sets the table for another shot at devolvement by Scotland and perhaps others. Hope this helps.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *