Forecasting for Political Junkies

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President Trump’s First 100 Days wrapped up at the end of April and for 2,044 forecasters on the Monkey Cage’s “First 100 Days Challenge,” there were some surprises and some highly-accurate forecasts. The First 100 Days Challenge was featured on Good Judgment Open, our crowd-sourced forecasting platform that is open to anyone interested in improving their forecasting skills.

Here are a few of the 11 key questions we asked for the “First 100 Days Challenge,” and how they resolved:

“Before 30 April 2017, will the U.S. suspend immigration from any country designated as a state sponsor of terrorism or a terrorist safe haven?” Outcome: YES

“Before 30 April 2017, will the U.S. provide a notice of intent to withdraw from NAFTA?”  Outcome: NO

“Will legislation removing the individual mandate to purchase health insurance be signed before 30 April 2017?” Outcome: NO

Last week, we called up Rico Figliolini, the winner of the “First 100 Days Challenge” (with an Accuracy Score of -0.663) to learn more about him and how he uses Good Judgment Open.

Rico is the Creative Director for a group of newspapers in Atlanta, Georgia, as well as a consultant on social media and marketing. He is also a self-described “political junkie.” His political background ranges from working in Brooklyn politics as a Democrat and home office staffer for then Congressman Chuck Schumer to moving south to Atlanta and becoming a Reagan Republican. These days, he describes himself as “more independent-leaning.” Indeed, there are forecasters of all political stripes on Good Judgment Open.

When asked how participating in GJ Open has impacted him, Rico replied that he now consults a more diverse array of news sources to aid his forecasting. When forecasting a question, he will look anywhere from CNN to Al Jazeera to the South China Morning Times to find relevant information.

Our latest forecasting Challenge for political junkies is called “State of the Union,” and it is co-sponsored by the Washington Post’s Monkey Cage. To get involved, try your hand at our latest question (of 8 questions so far) on a hot political topic: “Who will win Georgia’s 6th Congressional district in the upcoming special election?

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