Can the ‘Davos Man’ Forecast?: Part 2

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At Davos this year, Good Judgment put participants’ forecasting prowess to the test by asking them identical forecasting questions to our professional Superforecasters. Results are in!

We asked the following questions:

  • “Before 30 April 2017, will the U.S. give notice of intent to withdraw from the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change?”
  • “When will the United Kingdom invoke Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty?”
  • “Before 1 January 2018, will a taxi company provide rides for paying customers in an autonomous vehicle without a backup operator?”

Two of the questions have resolved. While more questions are needed to make firm conclusions about individual forecasting accuracy, Good Judgment is pleased to report that Davos participants and Superforecasters were on ‘the right side of maybe’ for these questions, with Superforecasters having a higher confidence earlier on the question outcome.

Davos results

For analysis of these results, check out the Good Judgment Forum Forecasting Interim Results Report.

 

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