Good Judgment is proud to announce the release of its online training course, Superforecasting Fundamentals. This training conveys fundamental skills and knowledge that can help anyone become a better, smarter forecaster. The exercises are based on years of research into forecasting methodology and touch on the key tools that Good Judgment Superforecasters have used to achieve world class forecasting accuracy.
The course consists of three modules: each addresses an important question that the best forecasters ask themselves when making their estimates of the likelihood of future events.
The first module teaches forecasters to take both the inside and outside views on a question and how to estimate base rates. Forecasters will practice estimating “base rates,” a key outside-view tool, and will learn to combine inside- and outside-view factors when making a forecast.
The second module discusses how the best forecasters constantly look for new information – and discriminate between useful and unhelpful information – as well as how to avoid common biases that make us stubborn when translating that new information into forecasts.
The final module explains the concept of calibration, which assesses how well forecasters “know what they know – and what they don’t know.” As the module explains, the best forecasters are typically the most accurately calibrated forecasters. Forecasters will learn to avoid being either over- or underconfident when making forecasts.
Good Judgment’s Superforecasting Fundamentals online course is available for both organizations and individuals. For more information, please visit https://good-judgment.thinkific.com/courses/Superforecasting-Fundamentals