HFC Digest

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So far, data-intensive topics have dominated the HFC Challenge. Have you enjoyed these model-friendly questions? Or do you prefer predicting events with fewer historical analogs?

No matter what your preference, the final eight weeks of the HFC Challenge will present many more of your favorite question types to test and hone your forecasting skills!

Here are the questions that most intrigued your fellow HFC Challenge participants thus far:

*Top 3 long-term (duration >1mo) questions with the most HFC Challenge participants:

3- What percentage of the popular vote will the Alternative for Germany party win in Germany’s next federal election?

2- Will FEWS NET publish a Food Security Alert with “famine” and “Yemen” in its headline between 9 August 2017 and 25 October 2017?

1- How many ‘hacking or malware (HACK)’ data breaches will Privacy Rights Clearinghouse record for September 2017?

*Top 3 short-term (duration <1mo) questions with the most HFC Challenge participants:

3- What will the closing price of gold be on 31 October 2017 in USD?

2- How many battle deaths will ACLED record in Sudan in August 2017?

1- Will ACLED record a riot/protest event in the Cote d’Ivoire (Ivory Coast) for August 2017?

And, here’s a quick look at how some Challenge questions have resolved:

*The outcome of the Alternative for Germany Election split the forecaster field. 48% of all participants who made at least one forecast on that question took a hit to their accuracy scores, while 52% of forecasters improved their accuracy score.

*Two questions endured for less than a week!

2- Will the UN Security Council adopt a resolution concerning the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea between 7 September 2017 and 4 October 2017?

1- How many seats will the Liberal Democratic Party win in the upcoming election for Japan’s House of Representatives?

Hats off to @Marcorules for the top Accuracy Score on Japan’s Snap Elections, a question on which only 6 out of 36 participants improved their overall Accuracy Score!

Hats off to @Dsarin, for the top Accuracy Score on the UN Security Council adopting a resolution involving the DPRK, on which only 3 out of 70 participants improved their overall Accuracy Score!

HFC Challenge Leaderboard as of 11AM ET Nov 10th

  1. dsarin (+1)
  2. The_Gnome (+4)
  3. Raisinville (+10)
  4. cmeinel (+4)
  5. Muratabu (new to top 20!)
  6. Hochstetler (-1)
  7. Howard (-4)
  8. Jstenmark (stayed)
  9. Aldousdj (+7)
  10. danbell7819 (new to top 20!)
  11. lonestar (new to top 20!)
  12. Algernon (-1)
  13. Guydreaux (-4)
  14. IanPitchford (+4)
  15. taylorcp (-1)
  16. Mos (+3)
  17. i401 (new to top 20!)
  18. cdob63 (-8)
  19. WhatCouldHappen (new to top 20!)
  20. matuschoma (-5)

The HFC Challenge ends next month. Keep up the hard forecasting, always update, and don’t forget to register for the Official Hybrid Forecasting Competition in order to participate in the main research program!

Stay tuned for next week’s HFC Digest to learn about the research teams competing in IARPA’s Hybrid Forecasting Competition, and what you might be asked to do as a participant assigned to one of their teams!

 

 

 

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