Since the beginning of the Good Judgment Project, our data scientists have been testing the best way to extend the relevance of forecasting, while maintaining appropriate question rigor in the methodology and accuracy. Question clusters are one of the prime methods we are currently developing.
There are a variety of cluster methodologies that we use with clients, depending on the desired outcomes.
This challenge has been explored in a collaboration with Stratfor looking at a cluster and diffusion index on The Future of Europe.
I believe the whole of our complimentary methodologies is greater than the sum of analytic parts. This exercise to look toward the future of Europe has given us both a much higher resolution on the picture of what lies ahead.
David Judson, Stratfor’s editor-in-chief
March 2018 Future of Europe Index
This diffusion index identifies changes in the stressors on European unity. This helps decision makers spot early warning signs that need a strategic response.
Figuring out the probability of a single distinct event is tough. But tackling bigger topics made up of many of those events is even more challenging, in part because of a problem researchers call the “rigor-relevance trade-off.”
By carefully crafting interrelated questions about discrete events that, in combination, shed light on a broader topic, analysts can boost the relevance of their forecast without compromising its rigor.
Warren Hatch, Superforecasting The Future Of Europe, Stratfor, January 2018
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