Superforecasting the Future of Europe with Stratfor

Posted on Posted in Publications, Superforecasting, Uncategorized

Since the beginning of the Good Judgment Project, our data scientists have been testing the best way to extend the relevance of forecasting, while maintaining appropriate question rigor in the methodology and accuracy. Question clusters are one of the prime methods we are currently developing.

There are a variety of cluster methodologies that we use with clients, depending on the desired outcomes.

This challenge has been explored in a collaboration with Stratfor looking at a cluster and diffusion index on The Future of Europe.

I believe the whole of our complimentary methodologies is greater than the sum of analytic parts. This exercise to look toward the future of Europe has given us both a much higher resolution on the picture of what lies ahead.

David Judson, Stratfor’s editor-in-chief

March 2018 Future of Europe Index


This diffusion index identifies changes in the stressors on European unity. This helps decision makers spot early warning signs that need a strategic response.

Figuring out the probability of a single distinct event is tough. But tackling bigger topics made up of many of those events is even more challenging, in part because of a problem researchers call the “rigor-relevance trade-off.”

By carefully crafting interrelated questions about discrete events that, in combination, shed light on a broader topic, analysts can boost the relevance of their forecast without compromising its rigor.

Warren Hatch, Superforecasting The Future Of Europe, Stratfor, January 2018


To subscribe to the Good Judgment Future of Europe Outlook or Probabilities Plus, with a 30 day free trial, please visit

To download a copy of the Stratfor article, please complete the form below. This will also subscribe you to the Good Judgment Inc Newsletter.

Request Future of Europe Stratfor Article Download

Share on FacebookTweet about this on TwitterShare on LinkedInEmail this to someone

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *