Help prevent mass atrocity: Forecast with GJOpen and Early Warning Project

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The Early Warning Project (part of the United States Holocaust Memorial Museum), monitors the risk of mass killing in specific countries to raise the alert to governments, advocacy groups, and at-risk societies. The latest edition of the Early Warning Project Challenge on will help bring crowdsourced wisdom to EWP and their efforts to prevent atrocity.

Forecasting on the risk of mass killing in the Early Warning Project Challenge will contribute to EWP’s work to create a first-of-its-kind public early warning system for mass atrocities. If you are concerned about humanitarian affairs around the globe, researching and making predictions in this Challenge can be a way to have an impact.

FAQs for EWP Challenge Forecasters

Do I have to be an expert on these countries and/or mass atrocities to forecast?
No. You can use publicly-available information and data from the Early Warning Project Statistical Risk Assessment to make your forecasts. The Good Judgment “wisdom of the crowd” method aggregates everyone’s forecasts together.

How do I get started forecasting?

The best way to learn is to start making forecasts. Don’t feel that your first forecast needs to be perfect. You can update and refine your forecast whenever you have better information.

Pick any question in the forecasting challenge to get started, then you can

  1. Get your ‘base rate’, perhaps by looking at EWP’s Statistical Risk Assessment. For example, Mali is assessed at 4% statistical risk. You can use this ‘outside view’ as your starting point.
  2. Adjust your forecast based on current news and your own judgment
    1. Read the latest news from reputable sources. Don’t just look at today’s headlines, look for trends over the last months. This is the ‘inside view’.
    2. Adjust for other factors you think are important. For example, how does climate or unemployment impact risks in a particular country? These elements are not all included in the Early Warning Project model. They require your judgment.
    3. Look at the comments being made by other forecasters. Beware trusting only their numeric forecasts.
  3. Stay up to date! The best forecasters refine their forecasts regularly as they read, see, or hear new information that they believe to be pertinent. To make this easier, add some relevant sources to your news flow:
    1. Follow Early Warning Project (cpg_ushmm) on Twitter.
    2. Add a search alert for relevant topics.
    3. Subscribe to email updates from news sources.

Where do I forecast?

Pick your first question and get started!

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