Mack Institute Challenge Coming Soon to GJ Open!

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A forecasting ‘post mortem’ is a valuable kind of retrospective analysis because it not only allows us to say ‘what happened,’ but it allows us to identify with some precision those areas where ‘what happened’ defied our expectations, and by how much (i.e. how confident were we in our erroneous expectations). The Mack Institute for Innovation Management […]

Can the ‘Davos Man’ Forecast?: Part 2

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At Davos this year, Good Judgment put participants’ forecasting prowess to the test by asking them identical forecasting questions to our professional Superforecasters. Results are in! We asked the following questions: “Before 30 April 2017, will the U.S. give notice of intent to withdraw from the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change?” “When will […]

Daryl Morey, GM of the Houston Rockets, Talks Superforecasting

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by Ben Kantor, Good Judgment Associate “Adapt or die” – Billy Beane played by Brad Pitt in Moneyball Good Judgment loves applying better forecasting and decision making to complex problems. So we get excited to hear about innovative ways forecasting is being applied in the real world. Typically, we work with industry leaders in commercial, […]

Top 10 Books Recommended by Superforecasters

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Good Judgment professional Superforecasters are an extraordinary, diverse, and intellectually curious bunch of people. In addition to their shared passion for forecasting, they have a shared passion for debating politics, philosophy and books on our forums. Typically, Superforecasters are expert in their chosen domain, but also tend to be polymaths. When the Superforecasters started debating […]

Elite Forecasters Challenge Now Launched

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The Arab Strategy Forum and Good Judgment Inc are pleased to welcome the inaugural cohort of approximately 1,000 forecasters to the Elite Forecasters Challenge, an exclusive economic and political forecasting tournament focused primarily on the Arab world. The tournament will run from May to November 2017. Participants will predict political and economic events in the […]

CFA LA Challenge Forecasters Put Low Odds of a Bear Market in U.S. Stocks

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by Warren Hatch President, Good Judgment Inc In a new collaboration, Good Judgment and the CFA Society Los Angeles have joined forces to launch a forecasting challenge on Good Judgment Open. Nearly a thousand forecasters have already picked up the gauntlet to forecast on finance and economics questions that range from interest rates to tax […]

New Challenges and Post-Mortems

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LAUNCHING THE “STATE OF THE UNION” CHALLENGE A lot is happening on Good Judgment Open this week. We are wrapping the “First 100 Days” Challenge and launching the “State of the Union” forecasting challenge sponsored by the Washington Post’s Monkey Cage blog. “State of the Union” will offer a battery of questions on the major […]

Who are the Superforecasters?

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The Superforecasters, identified through the Good Judgment Project research, are the backbone of Good Judgment’s forecasting services. In particular, it is through their forecasting prowess on Superforecasting teams that we can offer accurate, well calibrated forecasts to our Analytics clients. We have kept score on every forecast made by Superforecasters since 2011. They have a proven […]

Announcing the Elite Forecasters Challenge

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Good Judgment Inc and the Arab Strategy Forum are pleased to announce the launch of the Elite Forecasters Challenge and invite aspiring forecasters with ties to the Arab world to join. Participants will compete to become part of an exclusive cadre of independently verified elite forecasters that can help the Arab world better prepare for […]