How Trump is Changing Forecasters’ Minds

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The election of Donald Trump as the 45th President of the United States surprised many forecasters on GJ Open and around the world. After any forecasting surprise, an aspiring Superforecaster should reflect on why they might have been wrong, which signs they might have missed, and importantly, whether an event signals that they should update their beliefs about […]

Monkey Cage: Which election forecast was the most accurate? Or rather: The least wrong?

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You might call 2016 the “Year of the Forecast” in US politics, as a seemingly unprecedented number of sources made public probability forecasts about the presidential election. Traditional media organizations, “data journalism” sites, academics, and crowd forecasting sites (including our own Good Judgment Open) went toe-to-toe to see who could most accurately predict the outcome […]

Monkey Cage: Gov. Pat McCrory’s reelection prospects are fading fast

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At the Washington Post’s Monkey Cage blog, John Sides continues his series of articles highlighting our US Election forecasting challenge with a post about our question on North Carolina Gov. Pat McCrory’s re-election chances. McCrory has seen his fair share of controversy recently, as Sides notes: The controversies during McCrory’s tenure are many. Early on, a spate of […]

Chances of SpaceX Falcon Heavy Launch Plummet After Explosion

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Since mid-June, we’ve been asking forecasters on Good Judgment Open a question about whether SpaceX, the private aerospace manufacturing and transportation company founded by Elon Musk (also of Tesla fame) would launch their new Falcon Heavy rocket into orbit before March 1st, 2017. The Falcon Heavy rocket, powered by a combination of three of SpaceX’s Falcon 9 rockets, […]

Monkey Cage: Donald Trump’s campaign is still on track to raise amazingly little money

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Over at The Washington Post’s Monkey Cage blog, John Sides highlights the current consensus on our Good Judgment Open question about Donald Trump’s campaign spending. Since the question opened in June, the crowd’s forecast has gradually shifted towards indicating that Trump’s campaign will spend a historically low amount of cash prior to election day.

Win a signed copy of Superforecasting!

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As we did in July, we’re giving away three copies of Superforecasting: The Art & Science of Prediction signed by Philip E. Tetlock to anyone who forecasts on Good Judgment Open in September. To enter, simply join GJ Open and make a forecast in the month of September. In the first week of October, we’ll randomly choose […]

Results from the GJ Open Feedback Survey

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On July 5th, we sent a short feedback survey to over 26,000 forecasters who had joined Good Judgment Open since the site opened to the public in September 2015, hoping to learn more about how our forecasters use GJ Open and what they hope to gain from participating in a massively open online forecasting site. Since […]