Monkey Cage: The odds for third-party success this year are getting better and better

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  At the Washington Post‘s Monkey Cage blog, John Sides remarks on our Good Judgment Open question about the popular vote share for an independent or third-party candidate in the upcoming US presidential election. According to the GJ Open consensus, the chances that a candidate like Gary Johnson will win at least 5% of the popular vote have […]

Monkey Cage: Is Trump threatening the GOP’s Senate majority? Not yet.

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At the Washington Post‘s Monkey Cage blog, John Sides highlights the fact that despite Donald Trump’s ascension to the presumptive nominee of the GOP, forecasters on Good Judgment Open have not changed their minds on the chances that Republicans lose their majority in the Senate. To be sure, there is some research suggesting that presidential candidates do […]

Monkey Cage: “There are lots of dumb predictions about third parties. Here’s a smarter one.”

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The Washington Post‘s Monkey Cage blog highlighted a trend on Good Judgment Open that shows the chances of a third party candidate winning at least 5% of the popular vote in the 2016 US presidential election are rising: In the past three weeks, the estimated chance went up from close to 0 percent to 25 percent. This is […]