Susan Pinker in The Globe and Mail on “In a world filled with surprises, can we predict the future?”

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“Given the competitive streak that typified superforecasters, I was surprised to learn that forecasters working in teams beat the solo predictors by a long shot. But it was not only the working conditions that allowed predictors to thrive. More than anything else, it was the mindset. The ‘supers’ had a willingness to update their beliefs […]

Justin Burke in The Australian on “Superior forecasters draw their successes from ashes of failure”

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“The book continues to turn up in all sorts of interesting places… Recently, Harvard historian and public intellectual Niall Ferguson cited Tetlock’s work to a Sydney Opera House audience, in response to a question from the audience about the accuracy of charismatic pundits in the media. Ferguson went on to say: ‘I have established a […]

John Authers in the FT on “Brexit shows no greater loser than political and market experts”

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“[I]n political forecasting, we need to be humble. For investors, that means being balanced and hedged, and not approaching an important, unpredictable event as though it is a certainty. It does not mean abandoning prediction markets. ‘We need to be patient,’ says Dr Tetlock, ‘and not toss out our best forecasting systems every time that […]

fin24 on “How to become a Superforecaster”

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“A key point is what Superforecasters do, not what they are. ‘Foresight isn’t a mysterious gift bestowed at birth. It is the product of particular ways of thinking, of gathering information, of updating beliefs. These habits of thought can be learned and cultivated by any intelligent, thoughtful, determined person,’ Tetlock concluded.” fin24, Ian Mann, June […]

City A.M. on “Superforecasting: How seemingly ordinary people can predict everything from world events to election results”

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“[T]he GJP employed psychologists to follow the supers’ progress to see what average folks like us could learn from them. They found that people who were good at forecasting were fairly intelligent, but not Mensa candidates.  Essentially, they possessed a healthy amount of cynicism that led them to ask the right questions and weigh up […]

MarketWatch on “Goldman Sachs adopts ‘odds’ approach to forecast the Fed’s next move”

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“Goldman Sachs said it’s “near-term Fed call” will now offer odds or probabilities… ‘This change will allow us to respond to new information about the economy or the Fed’s views in a manner that is nuanced but nevertheless clear, consistent with best practice as identified in the 2015 book Superforecasting by Philip Tetlock and Dan […]