Alliance Bernstein in Institutional Investor on “Superforecasting for Active Investors”

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“In the age of information overload, the active investor’s edge increasingly lies in knowing what information truly matters and how to process that information. If you can identify skill — whether you are looking to hire a portfolio manager or you are a portfolio manager aspiring to improve — we believe that this superforecasting framework […]

Phil Tetlock and Dan Gardner on “Better Learning Through Better Betting”

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“Ideally, a bet would use a question as big as the debate it means to settle. But that will not work, because big questions – “Will population growth outstrip resources and threaten civilization?” – do not produce easily measurable outcomes. The key, instead, is to ask many small, precise questions…. This approach, using question clusters, […]

Join the “Electric Vehicle Tipping Point” Challenge at GJ Open

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Enthusiasm for electric vehicles has historically followed a boom and bust cycle. With the emergence of electric vehicle startups like Tesla, the introduction of global electric models like Nissan Leaf, declining battery costs, government subsidies, and public/private infrastructure investments, it is a good time to ask: Are we on the cusp of an electric vehicle […]

Paul Schoemaker and Phil Tetlock in the Harvard Business Review on “Superforecasting: How to Upgrade Your Company’s Judgment”

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“The sweet spot that companies should focus on is forecasts for which some data, logic, and analysis can be used but seasoned judgment and careful questioning also play key roles. … On the basis of our research and consulting experience, we have identified a set of practices that leaders can apply to improve their firms’ […]

The Wharton Journal on “A book review and a love letter”

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“Written by Penn’s own genius prognosticator Phil Tetlock, the work is chock full of lessons on prediction…. Of Tetlock’s thousands of novices, 2% stuck out as highly and consistently accurate. He deems these people ‘superforecasters’, and attempts to glean lessons from them. What he learns then recommends seems intuitive – break down an issue into […]

“Journal of Strategic Security” Reviews Superforecasting

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“Superforecasting … is very much worth reading by intelligence professionals, or by anyone in any field who is interested in understanding how to look into the future. It should be required reading for all students interested in intelligence, and for professors who teach intelligence – they should update their courses to reflect these new insights.” […]

Penn Spotlights on “Penn-trained ‘Superforecasters’ Outpredict Pundits in 2016 Elections”

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“According to Professor Philip Tetlock, the quality of the 2016 presidential debates have been disappointing to say the least, but could be improved by applying the methods used in forecasting tournaments—where predictions are scored against actual outcomes…. ‘The forecasting tournament’s scientific approach and probability estimation would be a more civilized way to figure out whose […]

REIT Magazine on “Phil Tetlock Explains the Art and Science of Superforecasting”

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“The superforeforecasters are professionals at making probability estimates in an uncertain world. As a firm, that’s Good Judgment’s specialty. Running a successful portfolio requires many other specialized skills, so at this point we are partnering with firms who have those skills and recognize the value that Good Judgment offers to their investment processes.” Allen Kenney, […]