by Welton Chang Imagine getting an alert with the following headline: “Mosul Dam breaches; hundreds of thousands missing or dead.” The Mosul Dam lies to the northwest of the third largest city in Iraq, a country where U.S. forces have been engaged in some capacity since the invasion in 2003. Most people have never heard […]
The election of Donald Trump as the 45th President of the United States surprised many forecasters on GJ Open and around the world. After any forecasting surprise, an aspiring Superforecaster should reflect on why they might have been wrong, which signs they might have missed, and importantly, whether an event signals that they should update their beliefs about […]
Good Judgment Inc is pleased to announce “In the News,” its new Forecasting Challenge on its crowdsourced forecasting platform, Good Judgment Open. The Challenge features questions plucked from the headlines, with topics ranging from politics, business, technology, sports, entertainment, and anything else trending in the media. One of the first timely forecasting opportunities in the […]
by Andrew Sabisky Mr. Sabisky is a forecaster on Good Judgment Open and a freelance writer. He has written extensively for the International Business Times – UK edition. Mr. Sabisky writes for the “Superforecasting in Action” blog to dive deeply into the perspective of an active GJ Open forecaster. As Advent progresses, it seems correct, in this […]
Good Judgment Inc is pleased to announce the launch of a forecasting challenge on its crowdsourced forecasting platform, Good Judgment Open, tied to The Economist’s World in 2017. The World in 2017, an annual collection of predictions, is a special edition of The Economist which identifies and explores the issues that will shape the year […]
by Andrew Sabisky Imagine you are presented with a cow, and an eccentric Englishman with an abnormally large head asks you to guess what its weight will be after it has been slaughtered and dressed. This was the question that legendary polymath Sir Francis Galton asked of hundreds of people at a country fair in […]
In June of this year, forecasters, pundits, financial markets, and the world at large were shocked as the United Kingdom voted to leave the European Union. While prediction markets and other forecasters assigned a probability of only around 25% to a Leave victory, tightening polls in the final days leading up to the referendum may have been a […]
On October 2nd, Colombian voters took to the polls to determine the fate of their government’s historic peace agreement meant to end 52 years of war with FARC rebels. The accord appeared likely to win approval, as polls showed that Colombians would vote “yes” in the plebiscite by a margin of almost two to one. […]
“Before 1 January 2017, will Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte proclaim martial law?” The above question, posed in our Good Judgment Open public forecasting tournament, seems fairly straightforward and as though it has been taken directly from the headlines. But, in reality, much meticulous drafting and an intensive question review process is going on behind the scenes by […]
At the Washington Post’s Monkey Cage blog, John Sides continues his series of articles highlighting our US Election forecasting challenge with a post about our question on North Carolina Gov. Pat McCrory’s re-election chances. McCrory has seen his fair share of controversy recently, as Sides notes: The controversies during McCrory’s tenure are many. Early on, a spate of […]