How Trump is Changing Forecasters’ Minds

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The election of Donald Trump as the 45th President of the United States surprised many forecasters on GJ Open and around the world. After any forecasting surprise, an aspiring Superforecaster should reflect on why they might have been wrong, which signs they might have missed, and importantly, whether an event signals that they should update their beliefs about […]

“In the News” Challenge Launches on Good Judgment Open

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Good Judgment Inc is pleased to announce “In the News,” its new Forecasting Challenge on its crowdsourced forecasting platform, Good Judgment Open. The Challenge features questions plucked from the headlines, with topics ranging from politics, business, technology, sports, entertainment, and anything else trending in the media. One of the first timely forecasting opportunities in the […]

Numbers, Not Hype

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by Andrew Sabisky Mr. Sabisky is a forecaster on Good Judgment Open and a freelance writer. He has written extensively for the International Business Times – UK edition. Mr. Sabisky writes for the “Superforecasting in Action” blog to dive deeply into the perspective of an active GJ Open forecaster.  As Advent progresses, it seems correct, in this […]

Good Judgment Inc Joins Forces with The Economist to Present “The World in 2017 Forecasting Challenge”

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Good Judgment Inc is pleased to announce the launch of a forecasting challenge on its crowdsourced forecasting platform, Good Judgment Open, tied to The Economist’s World in 2017. The World in 2017, an annual collection of predictions, is a special edition of The Economist which identifies and explores the issues that will shape the year […]

The Good Judgment Team Breaks Down What Makes a Good Forecasting Question & Why

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“Before 1 January 2017, will Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte proclaim martial law?” The above question, posed in our Good Judgment Open public forecasting tournament, seems fairly straightforward and as though it has been taken directly from the headlines. But, in reality, much meticulous drafting and an intensive question review process is going on behind the scenes by […]

Monkey Cage: Gov. Pat McCrory’s reelection prospects are fading fast

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At the Washington Post’s Monkey Cage blog, John Sides continues his series of articles highlighting our US Election forecasting challenge with a post about our question on North Carolina Gov. Pat McCrory’s re-election chances. McCrory has seen his fair share of controversy recently, as Sides notes: The controversies during McCrory’s tenure are many. Early on, a spate of […]

Chances of SpaceX Falcon Heavy Launch Plummet After Explosion

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Since mid-June, we’ve been asking forecasters on Good Judgment Open a question about whether SpaceX, the private aerospace manufacturing and transportation company founded by Elon Musk (also of Tesla fame) would launch their new Falcon Heavy rocket into orbit before March 1st, 2017. The Falcon Heavy rocket, powered by a combination of three of SpaceX’s Falcon 9 rockets, […]