Monkey Cage: Gov. Pat McCrory’s reelection prospects are fading fast

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At the Washington Post’s Monkey Cage blog, John Sides continues his series of articles highlighting our US Election forecasting challenge with a post about our question on North Carolina Gov. Pat McCrory’s re-election chances. McCrory has seen his fair share of controversy recently, as Sides notes: The controversies during McCrory’s tenure are many. Early on, a spate of […]

“How ‘Superforecasters’ Think About the Future” in Bloomberg View

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Read this excellent article in Bloomberg View on Superforecasting, featuring Phil Tetlock (our co-founder) and Warren Hatch (our Senior Vice President.) “Hatch, the superforecaster, sees the scientific study of human judgment as something up and coming. ‘It’s in the air,’ he said. Maybe intuition is like any swimming or cooking or many other skills — practicing […]

Monkey Cage: Donald Trump’s campaign is still on track to raise amazingly little money

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Over at The Washington Post’s Monkey Cage blog, John Sides highlights the current consensus on our Good Judgment Open question about Donald Trump’s campaign spending. Since the question opened in June, the crowd’s forecast has gradually shifted towards indicating that Trump’s campaign will spend a historically low amount of cash prior to election day.

Monkey Cage: The odds for third-party success this year are getting better and better

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  At the Washington Post‘s Monkey Cage blog, John Sides remarks on our Good Judgment Open question about the popular vote share for an independent or third-party candidate in the upcoming US presidential election. According to the GJ Open consensus, the chances that a candidate like Gary Johnson will win at least 5% of the popular vote have […]

Susan Pinker in The Globe and Mail on “In a world filled with surprises, can we predict the future?”

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“Given the competitive streak that typified superforecasters, I was surprised to learn that forecasters working in teams beat the solo predictors by a long shot. But it was not only the working conditions that allowed predictors to thrive. More than anything else, it was the mindset. The ‘supers’ had a willingness to update their beliefs […]

Justin Burke in The Australian on “Superior forecasters draw their successes from ashes of failure”

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“The book continues to turn up in all sorts of interesting places… Recently, Harvard historian and public intellectual Niall Ferguson cited Tetlock’s work to a Sydney Opera House audience, in response to a question from the audience about the accuracy of charismatic pundits in the media. Ferguson went on to say: ‘I have established a […]

John Authers in the FT on “Brexit shows no greater loser than political and market experts”

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“[I]n political forecasting, we need to be humble. For investors, that means being balanced and hedged, and not approaching an important, unpredictable event as though it is a certainty. It does not mean abandoning prediction markets. ‘We need to be patient,’ says Dr Tetlock, ‘and not toss out our best forecasting systems every time that […]