Monkey Cage: Is Trump threatening the GOP’s Senate majority? Not yet.

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At the Washington Post‘s Monkey Cage blog, John Sides highlights the fact that despite Donald Trump’s ascension to the presumptive nominee of the GOP, forecasters on Good Judgment Open have not changed their minds on the chances that Republicans lose their majority in the Senate. To be sure, there is some research suggesting that presidential candidates do […]

fin24 on “How to become a Superforecaster”

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“A key point is what Superforecasters do, not what they are. ‘Foresight isn’t a mysterious gift bestowed at birth. It is the product of particular ways of thinking, of gathering information, of updating beliefs. These habits of thought can be learned and cultivated by any intelligent, thoughtful, determined person,’ Tetlock concluded.” fin24, Ian Mann, June […]

Monkey Cage: “There are lots of dumb predictions about third parties. Here’s a smarter one.”

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The Washington Post‘s Monkey Cage blog highlighted a trend on Good Judgment Open that shows the chances of a third party candidate winning at least 5% of the popular vote in the 2016 US presidential election are rising: In the past three weeks, the estimated chance went up from close to 0 percent to 25 percent. This is […]

City A.M. on “Superforecasting: How seemingly ordinary people can predict everything from world events to election results”

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“[T]he GJP employed psychologists to follow the supers’ progress to see what average folks like us could learn from them. They found that people who were good at forecasting were fairly intelligent, but not Mensa candidates.  Essentially, they possessed a healthy amount of cynicism that led them to ask the right questions and weigh up […]

MarketWatch on “Goldman Sachs adopts ‘odds’ approach to forecast the Fed’s next move”

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“Goldman Sachs said it’s “near-term Fed call” will now offer odds or probabilities… ‘This change will allow us to respond to new information about the economy or the Fed’s views in a manner that is nuanced but nevertheless clear, consistent with best practice as identified in the 2015 book Superforecasting by Philip Tetlock and Dan […]

Alliance Bernstein in Institutional Investor on “Superforecasting for Active Investors”

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“In the age of information overload, the active investor’s edge increasingly lies in knowing what information truly matters and how to process that information. If you can identify skill — whether you are looking to hire a portfolio manager or you are a portfolio manager aspiring to improve — we believe that this superforecasting framework […]

The Wharton Journal on “A book review and a love letter”

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“Written by Penn’s own genius prognosticator Phil Tetlock, the work is chock full of lessons on prediction…. Of Tetlock’s thousands of novices, 2% stuck out as highly and consistently accurate. He deems these people ‘superforecasters’, and attempts to glean lessons from them. What he learns then recommends seems intuitive – break down an issue into […]