GJI Co-founder Philip Tetlock Delivers “Masterclass” to the World Government Summit in Dubai

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Dr. Philip Tetlock, author of Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction and co-founder of Good Judgment Inc, delivered a Masterclass called “Superforecasting: Enabling Better Decisions by Enhancing Foresight” to the World Government Summit in Dubai in late October 2016. The Masterclass was part of an effort to underscore the work of the UAE Government […]

Philip Tetlock’s Edge Master Class #5: Condensing it All Into Four Big Problems

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“What we’re trying to encourage in training is not only getting people to monitor their thought processes, but to listen to themselves think about how they think. That sounds dangerously like an infinite regress into nowhere, but the capacity to listen to yourself, talk to yourself, and decide whether you like what you’re hearing is […]

Philip Tetlock’s Edge Master Class #4: Superforecasting Requires “Counterfactualizing”

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“A famous economist, Albert Hirschman, had a wonderful phrase, “self-subversion” … Self-subversion is an integral part of what makes superforecasting cognition work. It’s the willingness to tolerate dissonance. It’s hard to be an extremist when you engage in self-subverting counterfactual cognition.” Click HERE to view the Edge Master Class 2015: A Short Course in Superforecasting, […]

Philip Tetlock’s Edge Master Class #3: The Elusive Control Groups in Policy Debates

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“For E.H. Carr, counterfactuals were a pestilence, they were a frivolous parlor game, a methodological rattle, a sore loser’s history…  Many historians do still agree, in some form, with E.H. Carr. Virtually all economic historians would agree with Robert Fogel, who’s one of the pivital people in economic history; he won a Nobel Prize. But […]

Philip Tetlock’s Edge Master Class #1: What We Discover When We Start Scoring Accuracy

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“It is as though high status pundits have learned a valuable survival skill, and that survival skill is they’ve mastered the art of appearing to go out on a limb without actually going out on a limb. …  forecasting tournaments are a very different way of proceeding. Forecasting tournaments require people to attach explicit probabilities […]