Alpha Pundits: Larry Summers has a good start in the New Year … but what did Paul Krugman just predict?

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by Warren Hatch Credit where credit is due. On October 7, 2015, Former Treasury Secretary Larry Summers published an important essay in the Washington Post on global secular stagnation. In particular, Mr Summers focused on the weakening trends in China that, as he put it, raise “the specter of a global vicious cycle in which […]

Polarization vs Prediction: Writing Questions to Moderate the Debate on Iran

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By Kathryn Cochran, Good Judgment Inc Welcome to the official launch of Philip Tetlock and Peter Scoblic’s adversarial collaboration challenge on Iran, “Prediction v. Polarization” now under way at GJOpen. As Phil and Peter set out in their recent piece for the New York Times, forecasting tournaments can elevate polarized political debates by putting accountability […]

The Good Judgment Challenge “Polarization vs Prediction: Iran”

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By Phil Tetlock and Peter Scoblic Welcome to “Polarization vs Prediction: Iran” for the first stage of the Good Judgment adversarial collaboration challenge. As we wrote in the New York Times on October 2, 2015, the policy debate about the Iran nuclear agreement turned into “a contest between competing predictions” by the different partisan camps. […]

The Tom Friedman Petro-State Bet and “Superquestions”

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    by Phil Tetlock and Warren Hatch Good Judgment takes more than accurate forecasts. For all their skills, superforecasters wouldn’t have their impressive track record without someone posing the right questions. Good judgment also requires superquestioners. Here’s a timely example from the book Superforecasting.  Back in the December 23, 2014, issue of the New York […]

Forecast with the Pundits: Charles Krauthammer and the Inevitability of Hilary Clinton’s Nomination

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   Charles Krauthammer, a seasoned observer of Beltway politics, made this forecast in the September 3, 2015, issue of the Washington Post: “Unless she’s indicted, Hillary Clinton will win the Democratic nomination.” That’s a clear, concise, and a testable proposition … although Mr Krauthammer then gives himself some wiggle room, as pundits often do: “There […]