The Tom Friedman Drought Bet

Posted on Leave a commentPosted in Pundit Challenge

    by Phil Tetlock and Warren Hatch The book Superforecasting opens with a tale of two forecasters: Tom Friedman, acclaimed New York Times journalist, and Bill Flack, up to that point an anonymous superforecaster in the IARPA-sponsored forecasting tournaments. The book notes a paradox: why do we know so much about the accuracy track record […]

Grexit and the Abuses of Vague Verbiage

Posted on 3 CommentsPosted in Pundit Challenge

By Phil Tetlock and Warren Hatch Coming soon to a bookstore near you, Superforecasting tells the story behind the discovery of raw superforecaster talent and the cultivation of that talent in forecasting tournaments and in collaborative teams.  Superforecasters cannot afford to rely on opinion alone. They put their reputations on the line every day by […]