Parsing Techniques: Layered Realm Analysis

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by Ari, Superforecaster Superforecasters sometimes sift through terabytes of data and gobble gigabytes of printed material in the process of formulating accurate probability estimates. When we discover experts offering timely, authoritative advice to the public on a topic relevant to our forecasts, we pay special attention. Sometimes we parse every word and every number they […]

Why the Oscar-nominated film The Martian is a study in Superforecasting

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by Regina Joseph, Superforecaster Forecasting as a pursuit may have no wider global application than the annual ritual of predicting Academy Award winners. Hollywood studios with skin in the game dispense with foresight in favor of aggressively courting voting Academy members to anoint their films with statuettes (and the lucrative box-office they bring); but outside […]

Forecasting Compliance Risk

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Reposted with permission from Corporate Counsel. by Ryan McConnell and Stephanie Bustamante Each year, compliance departments try to figure out how to allocate limited resources across their program. Risk assessments help. Regulatory guidance such as the U.S. Sentencing Guidelines note that an effective compliance program must periodically assess the risk of criminal conduct and take […]

Forecast for the 2016 Consumer Electronics Show: Lots of Bright Shiny Objects

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by Bob Sawyer, Superforecaster The 2016 Consumer Electronics Show is upon us, and with it inevitably comes an avalanche of new, “bright, shiny objects” plus the requisite predictions from technology pundits – what’s hot, what’s not, and whatnot. I recently ended up in a fascinating “meta-forecasting” discussion – predictions about predictions, if you will. The […]

Asset Return Forecasting

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by David Rapach, Professor of Economics and John Simon Endowed Chair in Economics at Saint Louis University I was recently invited by the CFA Montreal to make a presentation on asset return forecasting at the 2015 Asset Management Forum. As fate would have it, Superforecasting was published just over a week before the forum, so […]