by Nick Rohrbaugh and Warren Hatch The United Kingdom voted to Leave the European Union, sending shockwaves through world political capitals and financial centers. Most everyone expected a close vote, but few anticipated that Britain would vote to Leave. Did the political and economic elites miscalculate the likelihood of a Leave vote? If so, they […]
If you can get to London and would like to spend a day workshopping forecasting techniques with Brier Consulting Principal and Superforecaster Michael Story in partnership with Good Judgment Inc SVP and Superforecaster Warren Hatch, this one-day event on Thursday 26th May will be of interest. Details HERE !
by Ari, Superforecaster Superforecasters sometimes sift through terabytes of data and gobble gigabytes of printed material in the process of formulating accurate probability estimates. When we discover experts offering timely, authoritative advice to the public on a topic relevant to our forecasts, we pay special attention. Sometimes we parse every word and every number they […]
by Samuel Bekoe and David Mihalyi In order to help Ghanaian MPs and the general public understand the potential impact of volatile petroleum prices on the implementation of the 2015 budget, we built an oil revenue forecasting model during the budget debates in 2014. We found that some of the techniques familiar to superforecasters improved […]
by Regina Joseph, Superforecaster Forecasting as a pursuit may have no wider global application than the annual ritual of predicting Academy Award winners. Hollywood studios with skin in the game dispense with foresight in favor of aggressively courting voting Academy members to anoint their films with statuettes (and the lucrative box-office they bring); but outside […]
by Warren Hatch Super chess players make “six times more large errors when on the lower side of equality.” That fascinating conclusion comes from a study by Ken Regan, as flagged on Tyler Cowen’s blog, with implications for Superforecasters who find themselves off their game – and for the upcoming human vs machine contest in […]
Reposted with permission from Corporate Counsel. by Ryan McConnell and Stephanie Bustamante Each year, compliance departments try to figure out how to allocate limited resources across their program. Risk assessments help. Regulatory guidance such as the U.S. Sentencing Guidelines note that an effective compliance program must periodically assess the risk of criminal conduct and take […]
by Bob Sawyer, Superforecaster The 2016 Consumer Electronics Show is upon us, and with it inevitably comes an avalanche of new, “bright, shiny objects” plus the requisite predictions from technology pundits – what’s hot, what’s not, and whatnot. I recently ended up in a fascinating “meta-forecasting” discussion – predictions about predictions, if you will. The […]
by David Rapach, Professor of Economics and John Simon Endowed Chair in Economics at Saint Louis University I was recently invited by the CFA Montreal to make a presentation on asset return forecasting at the 2015 Asset Management Forum. As fate would have it, Superforecasting was published just over a week before the forum, so […]
by Brian Labatte, Superforecaster That headline is a reasonable summary of the responses I received from the number of friends, family and colleagues that took the time from their busy day to provide feedback on my interview with Maclean’s Magazine, one of Canada’s leading and influential print and on-line sources. One of the joys of […]