Standing Gill v. Whitford On its Head

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Opinion by Ryan Adler Ryan Adler is a Superforecaster and Senior Consultant for Good Judgment who specializes in legal analysis for Good Judgment’s question writing team. He also administers the SCOTUS Challenge on Good Judgment Open, a collaboration between SCOTUSblog and Good Judgment that facilitates probabilistic thinking about court decisions. Ryan can be reached at adler@goodjudgment.com.   In The Devil’s […]

The Crowd May Have Been More Right Than 55% Might Look

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Opinion Ryan Adler is a Superforecaster and Senior Consultant for Good Judgment who specializes in legal analysis for Good Judgment’s question writing team. He also administers the SCOTUS Challenge on Good Judgment Open, a collaboration between SCOTUSblog and Good Judgment that facilitates probabilistic thinking about court decisions. Ryan can be reached at adler@goodjudgment.com.   The Court […]

Forecasting executive vs. judicial decisions: a study in contrasts

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Opinion Ryan Adler is a Superforecaster and Senior Consultant for Good Judgment who specializes in legal analysis for Good Judgment’s question writing team. He also administers the SCOTUS Challenge on Good Judgment Open, a collaboration between SCOTUSblog and Good Judgment that facilitates probabilistic thinking about court decisions. Ryan can be reached at adler@goodjudgment.com. Whether you love him, hate him, […]

Murphy v. NCAA: Betting on the Crowd

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Opinion by Ryan Adler Ryan Adler is a Superforecaster and Senior Consultant for Good Judgment who specializes in legal analysis for Good Judgment’s question writing team. He also administers the SCOTUS Challenge on Good Judgment Open, a collaboration between SCOTUSblog and Good Judgment that facilitates probabilistic thinking about court decisions. Ryan can be reached at adler@goodjudgment.com. Much to the […]

Leave the Opinions to the Court

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Opinion by Ryan Adler Ryan Adler is a Superforecaster and Senior Consultant for Good Judgment who specializes in legal analysis for Good Judgment’s question writing team. He also administers the SCOTUS Challenge on Good Judgment Open, a collaboration between SCOTUSblog and Good Judgment that facilitates probabilistic thinking about court decisions. Ryan can be reached at adler@goodjudgment.com.   As best […]

Help prevent mass atrocity: Forecast with GJOpen and Early Warning Project

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The Early Warning Project (part of the United States Holocaust Memorial Museum), monitors the risk of mass killing in specific countries to raise the alert to governments, advocacy groups, and at-risk societies. The latest edition of the Early Warning Project Challenge on gjopen.com will help bring crowdsourced wisdom to EWP and their efforts to prevent atrocity. Forecasting […]

Superforecasting the Future of Europe with Stratfor

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Since the beginning of the Good Judgment Project, our data scientists have been testing the best way to extend the relevance of forecasting, while maintaining appropriate question rigor in the methodology and accuracy. Question clusters are one of the prime methods we are currently developing. There are a variety of cluster methodologies that we use […]

Results of the HFC Challenge are In! (HFC Challenge Wrap-Up)

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The HFC Challenge has wrapped up on Good Judgment Open, and Good Judgment congratulates all HFC Challenge forecasters warmly, as we prepare to begin the official Hybrid Forecasting Competition in March 2018. Featuring over 100 questions over 5 months, the HFC Challenge attracted a total of 1,869 forecasters. HFC Challenge participants forecasted important political and […]

Good Judgment and Arab Strategy Forum Elite Forecasters Challenge 2017 – Top Forecasters Announced

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Congratulations to the 2017 Elite Forecasters Challenge top forecasters, announced by the Arab Strategy Forum at their annual Forum event on December 11-12, 2017 and on Twitter and Facebook. The Challenge ran from May through November 2017 in both English and Arabic, and nearly 800 volunteer forecasters with ties to 20 Arab countries engaged in […]