Opinion by Ryan Adler Ryan Adler is a Superforecaster and Senior Consultant for Good Judgment who specializes in legal analysis for Good Judgment’s question writing team. He also administers the SCOTUS Challenge on Good Judgment Open, a collaboration between SCOTUSblog and Good Judgment that facilitates probabilistic thinking about court decisions. Ryan can be reached at adler@goodjudgment.com. In The Devil’s […]
Opinion Ryan Adler is a Superforecaster and Senior Consultant for Good Judgment who specializes in legal analysis for Good Judgment’s question writing team. He also administers the SCOTUS Challenge on Good Judgment Open, a collaboration between SCOTUSblog and Good Judgment that facilitates probabilistic thinking about court decisions. Ryan can be reached at adler@goodjudgment.com. The Court […]
Opinion Ryan Adler is a Superforecaster and Senior Consultant for Good Judgment who specializes in legal analysis for Good Judgment’s question writing team. He also administers the SCOTUS Challenge on Good Judgment Open, a collaboration between SCOTUSblog and Good Judgment that facilitates probabilistic thinking about court decisions. Ryan can be reached at adler@goodjudgment.com. Whether you love him, hate him, […]
Opinion by Ryan Adler Ryan Adler is a Superforecaster and Senior Consultant for Good Judgment who specializes in legal analysis for Good Judgment’s question writing team. He also administers the SCOTUS Challenge on Good Judgment Open, a collaboration between SCOTUSblog and Good Judgment that facilitates probabilistic thinking about court decisions. Ryan can be reached at adler@goodjudgment.com. Much to the […]
Opinion by Ryan Adler Ryan Adler is a Superforecaster and Senior Consultant for Good Judgment who specializes in legal analysis for Good Judgment’s question writing team. He also administers the SCOTUS Challenge on Good Judgment Open, a collaboration between SCOTUSblog and Good Judgment that facilitates probabilistic thinking about court decisions. Ryan can be reached at adler@goodjudgment.com. As best […]
A message from the Program on Vehicle and Mobility Innovation at Wharton’s Mack Institute The Mack Institute and its Program on Vehicle and Mobility Innovation have worked with GJ to add a new question to the Vehicle Innovations Challenge that will allow for more fine-grained predictions of what will happen to Model 3 deliveries. Forecasters […]
The Early Warning Project (part of the United States Holocaust Memorial Museum), monitors the risk of mass killing in specific countries to raise the alert to governments, advocacy groups, and at-risk societies. The latest edition of the Early Warning Project Challenge on gjopen.com will help bring crowdsourced wisdom to EWP and their efforts to prevent atrocity. Forecasting […]
Since the beginning of the Good Judgment Project, our data scientists have been testing the best way to extend the relevance of forecasting, while maintaining appropriate question rigor in the methodology and accuracy. Question clusters are one of the prime methods we are currently developing. There are a variety of cluster methodologies that we use […]
The HFC Challenge has wrapped up on Good Judgment Open, and Good Judgment congratulates all HFC Challenge forecasters warmly, as we prepare to begin the official Hybrid Forecasting Competition in March 2018. Featuring over 100 questions over 5 months, the HFC Challenge attracted a total of 1,869 forecasters. HFC Challenge participants forecasted important political and […]
Congratulations to the 2017 Elite Forecasters Challenge top forecasters, announced by the Arab Strategy Forum at their annual Forum event on December 11-12, 2017 and on Twitter and Facebook. The Challenge ran from May through November 2017 in both English and Arabic, and nearly 800 volunteer forecasters with ties to 20 Arab countries engaged in […]