A message from the Program on Vehicle and Mobility Innovation at Wharton’s Mack Institute The Mack Institute and its Program on Vehicle and Mobility Innovation have worked with GJ to add a new question to the Vehicle Innovations Challenge that will allow for more fine-grained predictions of what will happen to Model 3 deliveries. Forecasters […]
The Early Warning Project (part of the United States Holocaust Memorial Museum), monitors the risk of mass killing in specific countries to raise the alert to governments, advocacy groups, and at-risk societies. The latest edition of the Early Warning Project Challenge on gjopen.com will help bring crowdsourced wisdom to EWP and their efforts to prevent atrocity. Forecasting […]
Since the beginning of the Good Judgment Project, our data scientists have been testing the best way to extend the relevance of forecasting, while maintaining appropriate question rigor in the methodology and accuracy. Question clusters are one of the prime methods we are currently developing. There are a variety of cluster methodologies that we use […]
The HFC Challenge has wrapped up on Good Judgment Open, and Good Judgment congratulates all HFC Challenge forecasters warmly, as we prepare to begin the official Hybrid Forecasting Competition in March 2018. Featuring over 100 questions over 5 months, the HFC Challenge attracted a total of 1,869 forecasters. HFC Challenge participants forecasted important political and […]
Congratulations to the 2017 Elite Forecasters Challenge top forecasters, announced by the Arab Strategy Forum at their annual Forum event on December 11-12, 2017 and on Twitter and Facebook. The Challenge ran from May through November 2017 in both English and Arabic, and nearly 800 volunteer forecasters with ties to 20 Arab countries engaged in […]
So far, data-intensive topics have dominated the HFC Challenge. Have you enjoyed these model-friendly questions? Or do you prefer predicting events with fewer historical analogs? No matter what your preference, the final eight weeks of the HFC Challenge will present many more of your favorite question types to test and hone your forecasting skills! Here […]
“The outcome was clear … the computer won.” In the heat of the 2016 U.S. presidential race, Laura Sydell of NPR deployed an interesting experiment: pitting two pundits (journalists from the left and right) against a computer (designed by a digital analytics firm called “Quid”) to see how each contestant fared in predicting election developments. […]
In November 2013, the Washington Post’s David Ignatius reported that the “top forecasters [in the Good Judgment Project], drawn from universities and elsewhere, performed about 30 percent better than the average for intelligence community analysts who could read intercepts and other secret data.” This tantalizing tidbit – while never denied outright by the US government – […]
Good Judgment is proud to announce the release of its online training course, Superforecasting Fundamentals. This training conveys fundamental skills and knowledge that can help anyone become a better, smarter forecaster. The exercises are based on years of research into forecasting methodology and touch on the key tools that Good Judgment Superforecasters have used to […]
A forecasting ‘post mortem’ is a valuable kind of retrospective analysis because it not only allows us to say ‘what happened,’ but it allows us to identify with some precision those areas where ‘what happened’ defied our expectations, and by how much (i.e. how confident were we in our erroneous expectations). The Mack Institute for Innovation Management […]