The 2018 SCOTUS Challenge Has Launched!

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Opinion by Ryan Adler Ryan Adler is a Superforecaster and Director at Good Judgment who specializes in legal analysis for Good Judgment’s question writing team. He also administers the SCOTUS Challenge on Good Judgment Open, which invites probabilistic thinking about court decisions. Ryan can be reached at adler@goodjudgment.com. Greetings forecasters and Court watchers!  With the first Monday […]

Early Warning Project Question Resolutions: July 1, 2017-June 30, 2018

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GJO Closing July 1 2017-June 30 2018 By Mollie Zapata, Simon-Skjodt Center for the Prevention of Genocide The Early Warning Project asked, “Between 1 July 2017 and 30 June 2018, will an armed group from [Country] engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in [Country]?” for 17 countries we determined to […]

A Quick Look Back at the Crowd Looking Forward

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Opinion by Ryan Adler Ryan Adler is a Superforecaster and Senior Consultant for Good Judgment who specializes in legal analysis for Good Judgment’s question writing team. He also administers the SCOTUS Challenge on Good Judgment Open, a collaboration between SCOTUSblog and Good Judgment that facilitates probabilistic thinking about court decisions. Ryan can be reached at adler@goodjudgment.com. Before we kicked […]

Janus v. AFSCME: Last, But Certainly Not Least

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Opinion by Ryan Adler Ryan Adler is a Superforecaster and Senior Consultant for Good Judgment who specializes in legal analysis for Good Judgment’s question writing team. He also administers the SCOTUS Challenge on Good Judgment Open, a collaboration between SCOTUSblog and Good Judgment that facilitates probabilistic thinking about court decisions. Ryan can be reached at […]

Trump & NIFLA: The First Amendment and the Crowd’s One-Two Punch

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Opinion by Ryan Adler Ryan Adler is a Superforecaster and Senior Consultant for Good Judgment who specializes in legal analysis for Good Judgment’s question writing team. He also administers the SCOTUS Challenge on Good Judgment Open, a collaboration between SCOTUSblog and Good Judgment that facilitates probabilistic thinking about court decisions. Ryan can be reached at […]

TGIF: One Big Hit and One Perplexing Tie

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Opinion by Ryan Adler Ryan Adler is a Superforecaster and Senior Consultant for Good Judgment who specializes in legal analysis for Good Judgment’s question writing team. He also administers the SCOTUS Challenge on Good Judgment Open, a collaboration between SCOTUSblog and Good Judgment that facilitates probabilistic thinking about court decisions. Ryan can be reached at […]

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South Dakota v. Wayfair, Inc: Tough Thursday for Forecasters

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Opinion by Ryan Adler Ryan Adler is a Superforecaster and Senior Consultant for Good Judgment who specializes in legal analysis for Good Judgment’s question writing team. He also administers the SCOTUS Challenge on Good Judgment Open, a collaboration between SCOTUSblog and Good Judgment that facilitates probabilistic thinking about court decisions. Ryan can be reached at […]

Standing Gill v. Whitford On its Head

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Opinion by Ryan Adler Ryan Adler is a Superforecaster and Senior Consultant for Good Judgment who specializes in legal analysis for Good Judgment’s question writing team. He also administers the SCOTUS Challenge on Good Judgment Open, a collaboration between SCOTUSblog and Good Judgment that facilitates probabilistic thinking about court decisions. Ryan can be reached at adler@goodjudgment.com.   In The Devil’s […]

The Crowd May Have Been More Right Than 55% Might Look

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Opinion Ryan Adler is a Superforecaster and Senior Consultant for Good Judgment who specializes in legal analysis for Good Judgment’s question writing team. He also administers the SCOTUS Challenge on Good Judgment Open, a collaboration between SCOTUSblog and Good Judgment that facilitates probabilistic thinking about court decisions. Ryan can be reached at adler@goodjudgment.com.   The Court […]

Forecasting executive vs. judicial decisions: a study in contrasts

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Opinion Ryan Adler is a Superforecaster and Senior Consultant for Good Judgment who specializes in legal analysis for Good Judgment’s question writing team. He also administers the SCOTUS Challenge on Good Judgment Open, a collaboration between SCOTUSblog and Good Judgment that facilitates probabilistic thinking about court decisions. Ryan can be reached at adler@goodjudgment.com. Whether you love him, hate him, […]