Can the ‘Davos Man’ Forecast?: Part 2

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At Davos this year, Good Judgment put participants’ forecasting prowess to the test by asking them identical forecasting questions to our professional Superforecasters. Results are in! We asked the following questions: “Before 30 April 2017, will the U.S. give notice of intent to withdraw from the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change?” “When will […]

Elite Forecasters Challenge Now Launched

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The Arab Strategy Forum and Good Judgment Inc are pleased to welcome the inaugural cohort of approximately 1,000 forecasters to the Elite Forecasters Challenge, an exclusive economic and political forecasting tournament focused primarily on the Arab world. The tournament will run from May to November 2017. Participants will predict political and economic events in the […]

Announcing the Elite Forecasters Challenge

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Good Judgment Inc and the Arab Strategy Forum are pleased to announce the launch of the Elite Forecasters Challenge and invite aspiring forecasters with ties to the Arab world to join. Participants will compete to become part of an exclusive cadre of independently verified elite forecasters that can help the Arab world better prepare for […]

NYC Superforecasting Workshops in May 2017

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Good Judgment Inc workshops are meant for “Monday morning deployment” – the lessons you will learn in the workshop are ready-to-deliver back to your team by the next Monday morning. Putting scientifically-validated forecasting techniques into practice is the goal of the Good Judgment Inc workshops, which are now open for registration in New York City […]

Bringing the Wisdom of the Crowd to Help the Early Warning Project

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Good Judgment Inc (GJI), the Early Warning Project (EWP), and the United States Holocaust Memorial Museum (USHMM) are pleased to announce an expanded partnership in 2017-2018. The Early Warning Project Challenge is now open for forecasters on GJ Open.  In the 2016 Early Warning Project Forecasting Challenge on GJ Open, forecasters predicted the likelihood of […]

Monkey Cage: Which election forecast was the most accurate? Or rather: The least wrong?

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You might call 2016 the “Year of the Forecast” in US politics, as a seemingly unprecedented number of sources made public probability forecasts about the presidential election. Traditional media organizations, “data journalism” sites, academics, and crowd forecasting sites (including our own Good Judgment Open) went toe-to-toe to see who could most accurately predict the outcome […]

Excerpt from “Krisen vorhersagen und verhindern – eine Gebrauchsanweisung”

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Last week, there was an excellent article on perspective-daily.de with interviews of Philip Tetlock and Superforecasters. The entire article is available in German at: https://perspective-daily.de/article/131/0plZiDeU The following is an excerpt from the article, translated into English: “According to Tetlock, the most prominent feature of a Superforecaster is that he regularly reviews his predictions and the […]

Will driving your own car become the new smoking?

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ON Good Judgment Open, the “Disruptions from Vehicle Innovations” Challenge asks forecasters about the critical juncture at which we find ourselves with the development of autonomous vehicles and electric vehicles. In this challenge, questions developed by researchers involved with the Program on Vehicle and Mobility Innovation (at the Mack Institute of Innovation Management at the Wharton […]