Monkey Cage: Which election forecast was the most accurate? Or rather: The least wrong?

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You might call 2016 the “Year of the Forecast” in US politics, as a seemingly unprecedented number of sources made public probability forecasts about the presidential election. Traditional media organizations, “data journalism” sites, academics, and crowd forecasting sites (including our own Good Judgment Open) went toe-to-toe to see who could most accurately predict the outcome […]

Excerpt from “Krisen vorhersagen und verhindern – eine Gebrauchsanweisung”

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Last week, there was an excellent article on perspective-daily.de with interviews of Philip Tetlock and Superforecasters. The entire article is available in German at: https://perspective-daily.de/article/131/0plZiDeU The following is an excerpt from the article, translated into English: “According to Tetlock, the most prominent feature of a Superforecaster is that he regularly reviews his predictions and the […]

Will driving your own car become the new smoking?

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ON Good Judgment Open, the “Disruptions from Vehicle Innovations” Challenge asks forecasters about the critical juncture at which we find ourselves with the development of autonomous vehicles and electric vehicles. In this challenge, questions developed by researchers involved with the Program on Vehicle and Mobility Innovation (at the Mack Institute of Innovation Management at the Wharton […]

“Superforecasting” Released in Paperback in the US

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From Good Judgment Inc’s co-founder Phil Tetlock (one of the world’s most highly regarded social scientists), and Dan Gardner (an award-winning journalist), Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction is now available in paperback. Forecasts shape our decisions, and our decisions shape our lives. Everyone would benefit from seeing further into the future, whether buying […]