HFC Digest

Posted on Leave a commentPosted in Uncategorized

So far, data-intensive topics have dominated the HFC Challenge. Have you enjoyed these model-friendly questions? Or do you prefer predicting events with fewer historical analogs? No matter what your preference, the final eight weeks of the HFC Challenge will present many more of your favorite question types to test and hone your forecasting skills! Here […]

Hybrid Forecasting Competition Now Recruiting Volunteer Forecasters

Posted on Leave a commentPosted in Uncategorized

“The outcome was clear … the computer won.” In the heat of the 2016 U.S. presidential race, Laura Sydell of NPR deployed an interesting experiment: pitting two pundits (journalists from the left and right) against a computer (designed by a digital analytics firm called “Quid”) to see how each contestant fared in predicting election developments. […]

It’s Official: Superforecasters Have Superior Judgment

Posted on Leave a commentPosted in Uncategorized

In November 2013, the Washington Post’s David Ignatius reported that the “top forecasters [in the Good Judgment Project], drawn from universities and elsewhere, performed about 30 percent better than the average for intelligence community analysts who could read intercepts and other secret data.” This tantalizing tidbit – while never denied outright by the US government – […]

Good Judgment Announces Online Forecasting Training

Posted on Leave a commentPosted in Uncategorized

Good Judgment is proud to announce the release of its online training course, Superforecasting Fundamentals. This training conveys fundamental skills and knowledge that can help anyone become a better, smarter forecaster. The exercises are based on years of research into forecasting methodology and touch on the key tools that Good Judgment Superforecasters have used to […]

Mack Institute Challenge Coming Soon to GJ Open!

Posted on Leave a commentPosted in Uncategorized

A forecasting ‘post mortem’ is a valuable kind of retrospective analysis because it not only allows us to say ‘what happened,’ but it allows us to identify with some precision those areas where ‘what happened’ defied our expectations, and by how much (i.e. how confident were we in our erroneous expectations). The Mack Institute for Innovation Management […]

Can the ‘Davos Man’ Forecast?: Part 2

Posted on Leave a commentPosted in Uncategorized

At Davos this year, Good Judgment put participants’ forecasting prowess to the test by asking them identical forecasting questions to our professional Superforecasters. Results are in! We asked the following questions: “Before 30 April 2017, will the U.S. give notice of intent to withdraw from the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change?” “When will […]

Elite Forecasters Challenge Now Launched

Posted on Leave a commentPosted in Uncategorized

The Arab Strategy Forum and Good Judgment Inc are pleased to welcome the inaugural cohort of approximately 1,000 forecasters to the Elite Forecasters Challenge, an exclusive economic and political forecasting tournament focused primarily on the Arab world. The tournament will run from May to November 2017. Participants will predict political and economic events in the […]

Announcing the Elite Forecasters Challenge

Posted on 1 CommentPosted in Uncategorized

Good Judgment Inc and the Arab Strategy Forum are pleased to announce the launch of the Elite Forecasters Challenge and invite aspiring forecasters with ties to the Arab world to join. Participants will compete to become part of an exclusive cadre of independently verified elite forecasters that can help the Arab world better prepare for […]

NYC Superforecasting Workshops in May 2017

Posted on Leave a commentPosted in Uncategorized

Good Judgment Inc workshops are meant for “Monday morning deployment” – the lessons you will learn in the workshop are ready-to-deliver back to your team by the next Monday morning. Putting scientifically-validated forecasting techniques into practice is the goal of the Good Judgment Inc workshops, which are now open for registration in New York City […]