Long-time United Nations reporter Peter Hulm looks in Global Geneva at what the UN might be like with Superforecasters in an advisory role. What could the world body do with numeric forecasts and crowdsourced intelligence? Read about the possibilities here.
You might call 2016 the “Year of the Forecast” in US politics, as a seemingly unprecedented number of sources made public probability forecasts about the presidential election. Traditional media organizations, “data journalism” sites, academics, and crowd forecasting sites (including our own Good Judgment Open) went toe-to-toe to see who could most accurately predict the outcome […]
Last week, there was an excellent article on perspective-daily.de with interviews of Philip Tetlock and Superforecasters. The entire article is available in German at: https://perspective-daily.de/article/131/0plZiDeU The following is an excerpt from the article, translated into English: “According to Tetlock, the most prominent feature of a Superforecaster is that he regularly reviews his predictions and the […]
ON Good Judgment Open, the “Disruptions from Vehicle Innovations” Challenge asks forecasters about the critical juncture at which we find ourselves with the development of autonomous vehicles and electric vehicles. In this challenge, questions developed by researchers involved with the Program on Vehicle and Mobility Innovation (at the Mack Institute of Innovation Management at the Wharton […]
From Good Judgment Inc’s co-founder Phil Tetlock (one of the world’s most highly regarded social scientists), and Dan Gardner (an award-winning journalist), Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction is now available in paperback. Forecasts shape our decisions, and our decisions shape our lives. Everyone would benefit from seeing further into the future, whether buying […]
Good Judgment Inc Managing Director Eva Chen and co-author David Budescu of Fordham University, are this year’s recipients of the Exeter Prize for their research on scoring methods for crowd-sourced forecasts. The Exeter Prize is awarded by the University of Exeter to the best paper published in the previous calendar year in a peer-reviewed journal […]
If you are interested in forecasting, we will be running a public tournament this fall. We would love to have you join! Registration Link