NYC Superforecasting Workshops in May 2017

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Good Judgment Inc workshops are meant for “Monday morning deployment” – the lessons you will learn in the workshop are ready-to-deliver back to your team by the next Monday morning. Putting scientifically-validated forecasting techniques into practice is the goal of the Good Judgment Inc workshops, which are now open for registration in New York City […]

Bringing the Wisdom of the Crowd to Help the Early Warning Project

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Good Judgment Inc (GJI), the Early Warning Project (EWP), and the United States Holocaust Memorial Museum (USHMM) are pleased to announce an expanded partnership in 2017-2018. The Early Warning Project Challenge is now open for forecasters on GJ Open.  In the 2016 Early Warning Project Forecasting Challenge on GJ Open, forecasters predicted the likelihood of […]

Monkey Cage: Which election forecast was the most accurate? Or rather: The least wrong?

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You might call 2016 the “Year of the Forecast” in US politics, as a seemingly unprecedented number of sources made public probability forecasts about the presidential election. Traditional media organizations, “data journalism” sites, academics, and crowd forecasting sites (including our own Good Judgment Open) went toe-to-toe to see who could most accurately predict the outcome […]

Excerpt from “Krisen vorhersagen und verhindern – eine Gebrauchsanweisung”

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Last week, there was an excellent article on perspective-daily.de with interviews of Philip Tetlock and Superforecasters. The entire article is available in German at: https://perspective-daily.de/article/131/0plZiDeU The following is an excerpt from the article, translated into English: “According to Tetlock, the most prominent feature of a Superforecaster is that he regularly reviews his predictions and the […]

Will driving your own car become the new smoking?

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ON Good Judgment Open, the “Disruptions from Vehicle Innovations” Challenge asks forecasters about the critical juncture at which we find ourselves with the development of autonomous vehicles and electric vehicles. In this challenge, questions developed by researchers involved with the Program on Vehicle and Mobility Innovation (at the Mack Institute of Innovation Management at the Wharton […]

“Superforecasting” Released in Paperback in the US

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From Good Judgment Inc’s co-founder Phil Tetlock (one of the world’s most highly regarded social scientists), and Dan Gardner (an award-winning journalist), Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction is now available in paperback. Forecasts shape our decisions, and our decisions shape our lives. Everyone would benefit from seeing further into the future, whether buying […]