The latest buzz on Superforecasting

Alternative data: Superforecasters continue to beat the market

Financial Times (February 2025) (*requires access to Monetary Policy Radar)

“A group of laypeople have generally out-predicted futures markets when it comes to Fed interest rate decisions,” writes Financial Times data journalist Joel Suss in the next instalment of the Alternative Data series.

The data-rich article compares the Superforecasters’ track record with that of the futures markets in anticipating what the FOMC will do. The Superforecasters proved 30% more accurate on average than the futures in 2024-2025. The piece also examines Good Judgment’s forecasts of Bank of England and ECB rate decisions.

“This outperformance by superforecasters is looking less fluky as time goes on and the data piles up,” the article concludes.

What the “superforecasters” predict for major events in 2025

The World Ahead 2025, The Economist (November 2024)

Following another successful collaboration last year, Good Judgment’s Superforecasters were invited to contribute their forecasts for The Economist’s forward-looking publication, The World Ahead 2025. Their forecasts focus on US tariffs; elections in Germany, Canada, and Australia; China’s inflation; the Russia-Ukraine conflict; and more.

There’s a Name for the Trap Biden Faces

The New York Times (July 2024)

Adam Grant’s guest essay in the New York Times references Good Judgment and Superforecasters.

“What Mr. Biden needs is not a support network but a challenge network,” the NYT bestselling author writes. “An ideal candidate for this role might be professional forecaster, since forecasters — unlike pollsters, who tell us what voters think today — excel at anticipating how views are likely to change tomorrow.”