In this program on how to predict the future and beat the wisdom of the crowds, the BBC’s Manuela Saragosa speaks to Good Judgment CEO Warren Hatch about Superforecasters and about the techniques they use to make their forecasts about topics ranging from geopolitics to economics and finance to science and technology.
Michael Molnar, Forbes (27 November 2019)
Good Judgment CEO and Superforecaster® Warren Hatch talks with Michael Molnar about his experiences as a forecaster in the research project (spoiler alert: he wasn’t an instant success!) and the ways in which Good Judgment Inc helps clients who want to take Superforecasting from the printed page to practical applications.
Talking Politics podcast (12 March 2020)
Prof. David Runciman of Talking Politics interviews “David Spiegelhalter, Professor of the Public Understanding of Risk, about the science of forecasting. Who or what are the superforecasters? How can they help governments make better decisions? And will intelligent machines ever be able to outdo the humans at seeing into the future? From Cummings to coronavirus, a conversation about the knowns, unknowns and what lies beyond that.”
[email protected] (26 November 2019)
New research from Good Judgment co-founder Barbara Mellers, a Wharton marketing professor, and Ville Satopӓӓ, INSEAD, uses data from the Good Judgment Project to examine the factors that influence forecasting accuracy. To their surprise, they found that the greatest advantage Superforecasters have over “regular” forecasters is a disciplined forecasting process that greatly reduces “noise” in their forecasts. Superforecasters also demonstrated less bias and had more/better information.
Walter Frick, Harvard Business Review (January 2018)
Paul J.H. Schoemaker & Philip E. Tetlock, MIT Sloan Management Review (13 March 2017)
Paul J.H. Schoemaker & Philip E. Tetlock, Harvard Business Review (May 2016)
BBC Radio "More or Less" (18 April 2020)
Walter Frick, Quartz.com (9 March 2020)
Will Dunn, New Statesman (21 February 2020)
Chris Smyth, The Times of London (18 February 2020)
Aleks Berditchevskaia & Kathy Peach, The Conversation (4 December 2019)
ValueWalk (4 October 2019)
BBC Future (12 August 2019)
80,000 Hours Podcast (28 June 2019)
(22 May 2019)
Hidden Brain, NPR (16 May 2019)
David Robson, BBC Future (12 April 2019)
Mike Bird, The Wall Street Journal (19 June 2018)
Arran Frood, New Scientist (24 February 2018)
Warren Hatch, Stratfor (4 February 2018)
Center for a New American Security (August 2017)
The Guardian (March 2017)
[email protected] (7 March 2017)
Philip Tetlock & Dan Gardner, Stratfor (15 October 2016)
Faye Flam, Bloomberg View (14 September 2016)
Jason Zweig, The Wall Street Journal (17 June 2016)
Tania Lombrozo, NPR 13.7 - Cosmos and Culture (23 February 2016)
Farnham Street (9 Dec. 2015)
Fareed Zakaria, GPS (27 Oct. 2015)
Philip E. Tetlock & J. Peter Scoblic, New York Times (2 October 2015)
The Economist (26 Sept. 2015)
[email protected] (13 May 2015)
Tim Harford, The Financial Times (5 Sept. 2014)
BBC Newsnight (5 Sept. 2014)
Alix Spiegel, Morning Edition, NPR (2 April 2014)
Philip E. Tetlock & Dan Gardner, The Economist: The World in 2014 (18 November 2013)
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