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J. Peter Scoblic & Philip E. Tetlock, Foreign Affairs (November/December 2020)
The authors advocate combining the power of imagination with the science of probabilistic prediction to create a powerful approach to strategic foresight. They note:
This holistic method would provide policymakers with both a range of conceivable futures and regular updates as to which one is likely to emerge. For once, they could make shrewd bets about tomorrow, today.
Mark DeCambre, MarketWatch (11 November 2020)
Research from Goldman Sachs and Good Judgment Inc. highlights how pivotal the positive news regarding the experimental vaccine candidate being developed by Pfizer Inc. and Germany-based BioNTech SE was for some market sectors.
As it illustrates, the energy and materials sectors, which have significantly lagged behind the broader market, both saw the most excess positive returns to the news on Monday.
Ed McKinley, Luckbox magazine (Dec 2020 / Jan 2021)
When Superforecasters with diverse backgrounds arrive at the same conclusion by following different paths, their combined knowledge yields an extremely strong conclusion.
Financial Times
Warren Hatch, Luckbox magazine (Aug./Sept. 2021)
The Telegraph (August 2021)
War on the Rocks (July 2021)
Steven Desmyter with Man Group, Forbes (July 2021)
ARC-ers podcast (July 2021)
MoneyWeek (July 2021)
Warren Hatch, Luckbox magazine (June/July 2021)
Walter Frick, Harvard Business Review (January 2018)
Warren Hatch, Luckbox magazine (May 2021)
Warren Hatch, Luckbox magazine (April 2021)
References Superforecasters around 1:42:00 mark (11 March 2021)
Susanne Mauthner-Weber & Manuela Eber, Kurier (20 March 2021)
Paul J.H. Schoemaker & Philip E. Tetlock, MIT Sloan Management Review (13 March 2017)
Paul J.H. Schoemaker & Philip E. Tetlock, Harvard Business Review (May 2016)
Perry World House, UPenn (February 2021)
Shaun Stevens, Investor's Corner, BNP Paribas blog (22 December 2020)
Ed McKinley, Luckbox magazine (Dec 2020 / Jan 2021)
Jan Hatzius, Goldman Sachs (9 November 2020)
Craig Macfie, Grainews (6 Nov 2020)
City News, The Big Story (5 Nov 2020)
ValueWalk (29 October 2020)
Pavel Atanasov, Scientific American (20 October 2020)
Stuart Ritchie, New Statesman (20 October 2020)
Madison Faller & Elyse Ausenbauh, JP Morgan Top Market Takeaways (2 October 2020)
Celine Castronuovo, The Hill (30 September 2020)
Ben Cohen, The Wall Street Journal (30 September 2020)
MAN Institute (29 September 2020)
Lewis Krauskopf, Reuters (22 September 2020)
Paul R. La Monica, CNN Business (21 September 2020)
Bill Conerly, Forbes (13 August 2020)
Saloni Sardona, Entrepreneur (6 August 2020)
Bryan Walsh, Axios Future (12 August 2020)
Tim Kilpatrick, MedCity News (6 August 2020)
Views - AIQ Investment Thinking (21 July 2020)
Stephen Gossett, BuiltIn (21 July 2020)
Timandra Harkness, BBC Radio 4 (14 July 2020)
The 21st Show, Illinois Public Media (23 June 2020)
CBSN (22 June 2020)
David Robson, BBC Future (21 June 2020)
Tara Law, TIME (11 June 2020)
Steve Hsu & Corey Washington, Manifold podcast #50 (11 June 2020)
Jon Younger, Forbes (6 June 2020)
Yahoo! Finance "On the Move" (29 May 2020)
Jill Wagner, Cheddar TV "Opening Bell" (28 May 2020)
Bloomberg Radio (Carol Massar and Jason Kelly, hosts) (28 May 2020)
Peter Coy, Bloomberg Businessweek (27 May 2020)
Thomas Fischermann, Die Zeit (27 May 2020)
Ashley Dull, Cardrates.com (27 May 2020)
Manuela Saragosa, BBC Radio "Business Daily" (9 March 2020)
Tim Harford, BBC Radio "More or Less" (18 April 2020)
Talking Politics podcast (12 March 2020)
Walter Frick, Quartz.com (9 March 2020)
Will Dunn, New Statesman (21 February 2020)
Chris Smyth, The Times of London (18 February 2020)
Aleks Berditchevskaia & Kathy Peach, The Conversation (4 December 2019)
Michael Molnar, Forbes (27 November 2019)
ValueWalk (4 October 2019)
BBC Future (12 August 2019)
80,000 Hours Podcast (28 June 2019)
David Epstein, The Atlantic (June 2019)
(22 May 2019)
Hidden Brain, NPR (16 May 2019)
David Robson, BBC Future (12 April 2019)
The Atlantic (September 2018)
Mike Bird, The Wall Street Journal (19 June 2018)
Doug Moore, Clearer Thinking (27 March 2018)
Arran Frood, New Scientist (24 February 2018)
Warren Hatch, Stratfor (4 February 2018)
Center for a New American Security (August 2017)
The Guardian (March 2017)
[email protected] (7 March 2017)
Philip Tetlock & Dan Gardner, Stratfor (15 October 2016)
Faye Flam, Bloomberg View (14 September 2016)
Jason Zweig, The Wall Street Journal (17 June 2016)
Tania Lombrozo, NPR 13.7 - Cosmos and Culture (23 February 2016)
Farnham Street (9 Dec. 2015)
Fareed Zakaria, GPS (27 Oct. 2015)
Philip E. Tetlock & J. Peter Scoblic, New York Times (2 October 2015)
The Economist (26 Sept. 2015)
[email protected] (13 May 2015)
Tim Harford, The Financial Times (5 Sept. 2014)
BBC Newsnight (5 Sept. 2014)
Alix Spiegel, Morning Edition, NPR (2 April 2014)
Philip E. Tetlock & Dan Gardner, The Economist: The World in 2014 (18 November 2013)
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