The latest buzz on Superforecasting

What ‘superforecasters’ predict for the COVID-19 pandemic

CBSN (22 June 2020)

The “superforecasting” firm Good Judgment uses probability estimates to make predictions about what to expect from the coronavirus pandemic. The firm’s CEO Warren Hatch joined CBSN to discuss the metrics his team uses to make these sort of forecasts.

‘Superforecasters’ are making eerily accurate predictions about COVID-19. Our leaders could learn from their approach.

Tara Law, TIME (11 June 2020)

Superforecasters “do not claim to possess supernatural abilities. Instead, they say their accuracy is a result of using specific techniques to structure their thinking and constantly trying to improve their skills. Superforecasters also tend to share certain personality traits, including humility, reflectiveness and comfort with numbers. These characteristics might mean that they’re better at putting their ego aside, and are willing to change their minds when challenged with new data or ideas.”

New expert networks like Superforecasters dramatically improve executive decision-making

Jon Younger, Forbes (6 June 2020)

Jon Younger, a Forbes contributor who focuses on free-lancing and expert networks, notes that “Good Judgment combines the qualities of an expert network with the power of Superforecasting.”

He writes: “The tools and methods [Good Judgment] has developed take crowd sourcing to more than the next level. It should become part of a company’s DNA.”