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As of July 27th, two of the questions on our COVID Recovery Dashboard have resolved: Major League Baseball began its regular season, and Walt Disney World re-opened its Magic Kingdom theme park. Below, we present the full forecasting history for those questions, along with the Superforecasters’ Brier scores and some comparative data about what other analysts and pundits were saying while these questions were still open.
Check out our public dashboard to see what the Superforecasters have to say about over two dozen open forecasting questions on additional reopening metrics, as well as the prospects for widely available vaccines and treatments, COVID case and mortality metrics, the US November elections, and both US and global economic and financial indicators.
Good Judgment’s Superforecasters truly knocked this forecast out of the park, achieving a 0.007 Brier score on this question. As with the Magic Kingdom question, they showed early insight by:
The compound forecasting question makes direct comparisons difficult; however, we display other publicly available information on the graph below to provide context for evaluating the Superforecasters’ projections at each point in time.
Superforecasters achieved a 0.04 Brier score on this forecasting question, showing early insight by:
Their forecasts compared favorably to other publicly available forecasts and statements from Disney management, as displayed on the graph below.
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