Superforecaster Ryan Adler shares a childhood memory to discuss what bottom-feeders can teach us about consuming social media.
I’m sure everyone has memories of unremarkable childhood moments that remain vivid decades later. When I was a wee one in the ’80s, probably Reagan’s second term, I recall to this day a funny experience I had on a marina back in Jackson County, Missouri. Lake Jacomo (as in Jackson County, MO…not the most creative name) is a pretty big lake with all the usual finned critters in any Midwestern body of water: bluegill, bass, crappie, catfish, and, of course, carp.
As living garbage disposals, the carp will congregate where they expect to find anything to eat. Marinas are a great place for that, since they are not picky. People throw out unused bait, scraps from cleaning the day’s catch, and plenty of other things into the water. In this particular spot, if anything touched the surface, fat carp would swim on top of each other to get a bite. When I was there one day, I saw a used cigarette butt on the dock. So, I did a little experiment. I threw the butt into the water where I had seen the carp congregating. The fifteen-second battle that ensued has stayed with me ever since. These creatures lived for trash, any trash, that might come their way.
This carp-like behavior isn’t new among humans, but the advent of social media has enabled anyone to throw cigarette butts at millions of people with zero regard for factual accuracy or good-faith characterizations of events. Vast swaths of X, Facebook, Bluesky, and others have become marina feeding grounds for intellectually lazy people who worship at the altar of induction. Sure, some sites have more blue carp than red carp and every political color of carp can find the trash it seeks, but you still end up with a product that will leave a nasty taste in your mouth.
This phenomenon has wide-ranging implications for a lot of things, but anyone who wants to be taken seriously as a forecaster needs to be actively aware of it. Social media is filled with narrative fallacy bait cut by people with an agenda, aiming solely to make people believe not as the world is, but as they want it to be (or, in many cases, simply lying for the sake of lying). Do you want to be a good forecaster? Don’t be a carp. Learn to be picky about what you bite!
* Ryan Adler is a Superforecaster, GJ managing director, and leader of Good Judgment’s question team
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