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Are questions about Europe keeping you awake at night?
Where should your company locate a new facility?
How can your aid organization best help refugees crossing the Mediterranean?
What are the political risks to your asset allocation exposure?
SuperforecastingTM Indexes can help you find the answers.
INTRODUCING
GOOD JUDGMENT’S FIRST SUPERFORECASTING INDEX...
THE FUTURE OF EUROPE
Our Superforecasters combine the rigorous precision of hard data with the nuanced interpretation of human judgment in a way nobody else does—or can.
There are plenty of opinions. Since the June 2016 Brexit vote, pundits have published millions of words to predict the ramifications of Europe’s changing landscape. But these are typically vague and imprecise.
And there’s no shortage of information. Big-data firms have produced thousands of data points. But their many models extrapolate trends that can’t be easily reconciled and often rely on machine-learning approaches that can’t be easily interpreted.
The disconnect between pundits and data makes effective decision-making difficult.
Good Judgment’s Future of Europe Index bridges this gap.
Why a Superforecasting Index?
Superforecasters already bring unparalleled accuracy to forecasting individual events. Now Superforecasting Indexes bring the proven Superforecasting methodology to tackle complex big-picture topics—identifying critical inflection points as they unfold.
Subscription Levels
Outlook, a monthly report highlighting big-picture trends, combines a numerical summary of directional change in European unity (the Index itself) with Superforecaster commentary that provides early insight into the drivers and indicators of Europe’s future.
Probabilities Plus provides subscription access to daily forecast updates on the questions underlying the Index and detailed analyses of emerging trends for each question. This proprietary information about the forecasts underlying our Future of Europe Index allows subscribers to integrate geopolitical risks into existing risk frameworks and quantitative models.
Outlook
Monthly summary report
Scan the horizon
Identify risk factors that need further attention
Upgrade your environmental scanning process
Report contains
  • Succinct analysis of recent changes to European unity trends
  • Links to drill into the diagnostic news for each question
  • Alerts of items that require strategic response
Ideal for
  • Strategic analysts looking for market trends in Europe
  • Policymakers needing to stay abreast of the evolving political landscape in Europe
Probabilities Plus
Access to detailed forecasts
Inform your proprietary models with independent forecasts
Tap into Superforecaster thinking
Quantify uncertainty and risk
Subscription provides
  • Daily updates of probabilities for all underlying question forecasts
  • Detailed analysis of each question within the Future of Europe index
  • Links to news that Superforecasters identify as diagnostic of emerging trends
  • Quantified forecasts that can be integrated into custom models and frameworks
Ideal for
  • Traders seeking to integrate quantified forecast models
  • Risk managers looking to monitor geopolitical risks
  • Executives evaluating investment risks across Europe
Outlook Probabilities Plus
Monthly summary report Access to detailed forecasts
Scan the horizon
Identify risk factors that need further attention
Inform your proprietary models with independent forecasts
Tap into Superforecaster thinking
Upgrade your environmental scanning process Quantify uncertainty and risk
Report contains
  • Succinct analysis of recent changes to European unity trends
  • Links to drill into the diagnostic news for each question
  • Alerts of items that require strategic response
Subscription provides
  • Daily updates of probabilities for all underlying question forecasts
  • Detailed analysis of each question within the Future of Europe index
  • Quantified forecasts that can be integrated into your models
Ideal for
  • Strategic analysts looking for market trends in Europe
  • Policymakers needing to stay abreast of the evolving political landscape in Europe
Ideal for
  • Traders seeking to integrate quantified forecast models
  • Risk managers looking to monitor geopolitical risks
  • Executives evaluating investment risks across Europe
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For a limited time, subscribe now and take advantage of a 30-day free trial period.
Subscriptions are for single-user license. Probabilities Plus subscriptions are eligible for additional user licenses at discounted rates.
Contact us at info@goodjudgment.com for billing and payment options for Probabilities Plus plans.
Future of Europe Index Outlook Probabilities Plus
Outlook Report explaining Index changes during the month
Links to diagnostic news highlighted by Superforecasters
Probabilities on underlying Index questions updated daily
Detailed monthly forecast reports for all underlying Index questions.
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Introductory Price
$50/month
$1,800/month
Subscribe at the annual rate and save
$500/year
$20,000/year

How the Index is compiled
The Future of Europe Index uses an evidence-based, quantified methodology unavailable elsewhere.
Each question illuminates the factors that can propel Europe toward either a closer union or a more fractured geopolitical environment:
  • Stressors on the European project, including rising nationalism, public perception of EU governance, security threats, and changing demographics;
  • Policy-level integration, including policy effectiveness, intra-EU conflicts, and country-level compliance with EU decisions; and
  • Evolution of the membership and structure of the European Union’s institutions.
Illustrative index questions include:
  • How long will Brexit negotiations take?
  • Will Greece need another bailout?
  • How will populists fare in the next election?
  • Who will join the EU? Will anyone leave?
  • What will unemployment be?
  • Will there be meaningful movement toward a monetary union?
Good Judgment’s professional Superforecasters provide probabilistic forecasts and commentary on each question.
We then compute the diffusion index. Good Judgment’s data scientists aggregate the underlying forecasts into a single index that crisply displays shifts in the data as they unfold. Taken together, these forecasts enable subscribers to see whether Europe is moving toward deeper, more meaningful integration or toward a future where national and subnational identities and priorities dominate politics.
Ready to subscribe? Subscribe today to receive 30-day free-trial access. Your credit card will not be charged until the end of the trial period.
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