“A group of laypeople have generally out-predicted futures markets when it comes to Fed interest rate decisions,” writes Financial Times data journalist Joel Suss in the next instalment of the Alternative Data series.

The data-rich article compares the Superforecasters’ track record with that of the futures markets in anticipating what the FOMC will do. The Superforecasters proved 30% more accurate on average than the futures in 2024-2025. The piece also examines Good Judgment’s forecasts of Bank of England and ECB rate decisions.

“This outperformance by superforecasters is looking less fluky as time goes on and the data piles up,” the article concludes.