“Superforecasters have continued to beat the market so far this year when it comes to anticipating Fed decisions, as they had also in 2023 and 2024,” writes Financial Times data journalist Joel Suss for FT’s exclusive Monetary Policy Radar service.

“At the FT’s Monetary Policy Radar, we’ve been continuously tracking how superforecasters stack up against financial markets when it comes to anticipating central bank interest rate decisions. We last crunched the numbers at the beginning of this year, concluding that superforecasters continued to have the edge over the futures market in anticipating what the FOMC will do. Looking at the data since January, it is clear that the superforecasters continue to beat the market.”