Will shots be fired between China and Taiwan before 2025? What will be the result of the 2024 US presidential election? What will US holiday season retail sales be for 2022 relative to the 2021 figure? These were some of the most read reports on our subscription-only FutureFirst™ monitor in the past 30 days. We highlight these questions with a limited version of the reports below. Many more great forecasts, including those on lockdowns in China, key elections around the world, and inflation in the US, are available through our paid subscription FutureFirst.
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As of 5 December 2022, Good Judgment’s professional Superforecasters see a 31% probability that the People’s Republic of China (PRC) or Taiwan will accuse the other of using a weapon against its forces before 1 January 2025. The Superforecasters point out the tensions remain high and are likely to continue to rise, but a full-scale invasion remains unlikely in this time frame. However, an incident could take place in this period that could lead to an accusation without it being part of a full-scale conflict.
This question has been created in collaboration with The Economist, “The World Ahead: 2023.”
The Superforecasters see a 10% probability (as of 5 December 2022) that Vladimir Putin will cease to be the Russian president before 1 October 2023. The chief pathway to this outcome, they argue, is the possibility of his deteriorating health. While the probability of a successful coup is low, and that of a successful mass uprising even lower, several Superforecasters suggest that the war in Ukraine, which is arguably going poorly for Russia, brings additional risks for Putin’s tenure as president.
This question has been created in collaboration with The Economist, “The World Ahead: 2023.”
As of 5 December 2022, Good Judgment’s professional Superforecasters see a 59% probability that global GDP growth will be higher by more than 1.50% but less than 3.00% (answer option C) in 2023 relative to the previous year. There is also a 23% probability it will be 0.00% to +1.50%, inclusive (answer option B). The Superforecasters expect a slower growth given the high interest rate environment, likely impacts of high energy prices on consumers, governments, and investment headed into 2023, and the possibility of a recession or a slowdown in the US, the EU, and China, the world’s main economic engines.
This question has been created in collaboration with The Economist, “The World Ahead: 2023.”
The Superforecasters see a 54% probability (as of 5 December 2022) that the Democratic Party nominee will win both the electoral vote and the popular vote in the 2024 election for US president. The base rate suggests that incumbent presidents win re-election more than 70% of the time. However, should President Biden not run for re-election, the probability of a successor victory is significantly lower. The Superforecasters also see a 32% probability the Republican Party nominee will win the electoral vote, but not the popular vote, as the last Republican candidate to win both the electoral vote and the popular vote was George W. Bush in 2004.
This question appears on our new US Elections Channel on FutureFirst. Learn more.
As of 5 December 2022, Good Judgment’s Superforecasters see a 62% probability that US holiday season retail sales growth for 2022 relative to the 2021 figure will be above the 1993-2021 average of 4.7% and will exceed 7.5% growth. Inflation, wage increases, and previously elevated gas prices (the latter potentially prompting consumers to spend more on goods and services instead of travel) are some of the key factors behind this forecast. On the other hand, slow hiring or layoffs could lead to lower consumer confidence.
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