Will shots be fired between China and Taiwan before 2025? What will be the result of the 2024 US presidential election? What will be the midpoint of the US federal funds target range at the end of 2023? These were some of the most read reports on our subscription-only FutureFirst™ monitor in the past 30 days. We highlight these questions with a limited version of the reports below. Many more great forecasts, including those on Taiwan, China’s GDP, and key elections around the world, are available through our paid subscription FutureFirst.
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As of 30 January 2023, Good Judgment’s professional Superforecasters see a 28% probability that the People’s Republic of China (PRC) or Taiwan will accuse the other of using a weapon against its forces before 1 January 2025. The Superforecasters point out the tensions remain high and are likely to continue to rise, but a full-scale invasion remains unlikely in this time frame. However, an incident could take place in this period that could lead to an accusation without it being part of a full-scale conflict.
This question has been created in collaboration with The Economist, “The World Ahead: 2023.”
The Superforecasters see a 6% probability (as of 30 January 2023) that Vladimir Putin will cease to be the Russian president before 1 October 2023. The chief pathway to this outcome, they argue, is the possibility of his deteriorating health. While the probability of a successful coup is low, and that of a successful mass uprising even lower, several Superforecasters suggest that the war in Ukraine, which is arguably going poorly for Russia, brings additional risks for Putin’s tenure as president.
This question has been created in collaboration with The Economist, “The World Ahead: 2023.”
The Superforecasters see a 55% probability (as of 30 January 2023) that the Democratic Party nominee will win both the electoral vote and the popular vote in the 2024 election for US president. The base rate suggests that incumbent presidents win re-election more than 70% of the time. However, should President Biden not run for re-election, the probability of a successor victory is significantly lower. The Superforecasters also see a 30% probability the Republican Party nominee will win the electoral vote, but not the popular vote, as the last Republican candidate to win both the electoral vote and the popular vote was George W. Bush in 2004.
This question appears on our new US Elections Channel on FutureFirst. Learn more.
Implied Median: 2.27%
According to Good Judgment’s Superforecasters, there is a 54% probability that the percent change in the PCE Price Index in Q4 2024 relative to Q4 2023 will be 1.0-2.5%. The Superforecasters also see a 36% probability that the PCE deflator will stay higher than the historical base rate, in the “More than 2.5% but less than 4.0%” range, and a 6% probability (in total) it will be 4.0% or more. Factors in this forecast include supply issues and signals from the Federal Reserve.
Implied Median: 4.78%
The Superforecasters see an 83% probability the midpoint of the US federal funds target range at the end of 2023 will be more than 4.0% but less than 5.5%. They also see a 10% probability it will be 2.5-4.0%. The Superforecasters expect the rates to continue to rise in early 2023.
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