Will the United States default on its debt by November 2024? Will shots be fired between China and Taiwan before 2025? What will be the US GDP growth in 2024? These were some of the most read reports on our subscription-only FutureFirst™ monitor in the past 30 days. We highlight these questions with a limited sample of Superforecaster commentary below. Many more great forecasts, including those on Taiwan, China’s GDP, and key elections around the world, are available through our paid subscription FutureFirst.
Our Public Dashboard features a small sample of our probability forecasts. The questions are rotated onto the Public Dashboard temporarily from FutureFirst™. For subscription access to FutureFirst, please contact our sales department. Media and government organizations can request partial access here. Probability values are updated daily at 7am EST.
As of 30 May 2023, Good Judgment’s Superforecasters see a 4% probability that the US will default on its debt before 1 November 2024. The base rate indicates this would be unprecedented, although there have been multiple close calls.
According to Good Judgment’s Superforecasters, there is a 51% probability that the US real GDP growth rate in the fourth quarter of 2024 relative to the fourth quarter of 2023 will be more than 1.5% but less than 3.0%. The Superforecasters also see a 27% probability that the growth rate will be between 0% and 1.5%, inclusive, in this period. Factors that would make the Superforecasters assign more probability to higher growth rates (currently 16% probability in total) include the effects of government spending and a slowdown in 2023 followed by a rebound in growth.
As of 25 May 2023, Good Judgment’s professional Superforecasters see a 29% probability that the People’s Republic of China (PRC) or Taiwan will accuse the other of using a weapon against its forces before 1 January 2025. The Superforecasters point out the tensions remain high and are likely to continue to rise, but a full-scale invasion remains unlikely in this time frame. However, an incident could take place in this period that could lead to an accusation without it being part of a full-scale conflict.
This question has been created in collaboration with The Economist, “The World Ahead: 2023.”
The Superforecasters see a 2% probability (as of 24 May 2023) that Vladimir Putin will cease to be the Russian president before 1 October 2023. The chief pathway to this outcome, they argue, is the possibility of his deteriorating health. While the probability of a successful coup is low, and that of a successful mass uprising even lower, several Superforecasters suggest that the war in Ukraine, which is arguably going poorly for Russia, brings additional risks for Putin’s tenure as president.
This question has been created in collaboration with The Economist, “The World Ahead: 2023.”
According to Good Judgment’s professional Superforecasters, there is a 3% probability (as of 23 May 2023) that the WHO will declare a Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) regarding H5N1 avian influenza before 1 January 2025. Key drivers behind this forecast are: the low transmission to humans so far, even though HPAI H5N1 strains have been around for over two decades; greater surveillance; and the argument that more successful mutations of the virus would be needed to produce a pandemic among humans in the next two years. Risk factors include mink farm conditions that may be conducive to the spread between species and the WHO erring on the side of caution in declaring a PHEIC early.
According to the Superforecasters, there is a 92% probability that fewer than 100 deaths will be officially attributed to H5N1 avian influenza between 7 February 2023 and 31 December 2024. They also see a 6% probability this number will be 100-1,000, inclusive. Key drivers behind this forecast are the historically low mortality rate (about 23 per year over the course of two decades) and low probability that H5N1 can infect many humans.
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