By Invitation Only

Welcome to the Roche AI Forecasting Challenge

Roche, one of the world’s largest biotech companies and a global leader in diagnostics and pharmaceuticals, invites you to take part in a unique forecasting challenge focused on the future of health and technology.

For over 125 years, Roche has pioneered innovation in healthcare, with a mission to prevent, treat, and ultimately cure diseases with the highest societal burden. Today, that mission increasingly relies on anticipating change—scientific, technological, societal—and acting with foresight.

That’s where you come in.

The Roche AI Forecasting Challenge invites curious minds to test their ability to make accurate, data-informed forecasts about the future of healthcare, artificial intelligence, and global trends. You’ll be challenged to think probabilistically about real-world events—mirroring the kind of analytical thinking that sets Superforecasters apart from the crowd.

If you’re new to forecasting, we recommend you read the Ten Commandments for Aspiring Superforecasters and explore other topics on our blog.

To be eligible for the prizes and badges, you must fill out the survey below and submit forecasts on all questions through the challenge’s conclusion on 30 September 2025. The top 5% of forecasters will be invited to a special webinar with the Roche Leadership Team, where they’ll learn about the project’s objectives, design, and outcomes.

Three badges will be awarded for the following:

  • Bronze badge: Forecast on all challenge questions.
  • Silver badge: Complete the challenge survey (requires Bronze badge).
  • Gold badge: Achieve top 10% performance (requires Silver badge).

To get started, select the appropriate link below, fill out the introductory survey, and make your first forecast!

Existing Good Judgment Open user? Click here

How the Roche AI Forecasting Challenge Works

The advent of AI holds incredible promise to revolutionize phamaceutical and medical diagnostic technologies. The questions in this challenge investigate the near-term progress that may come in 2025.
The challenge will be live for four months.
To be eligible for the prizes and badges, you must fill out the survey and forecast on all questions in the challenge.

About Good Judgment Inc

Good Judgment Inc is the commercial spinoff of the Good Judgment Project (GJP) founded by Wharton Professor Philip Tetlock. Harnessing the wisdom of the crowd, our clients now benefit from the externally validated forecasting methodology that made GJP so successful.

Our global network of elite Superforecasters collaborates to tackle clients’ forecasting questions with unparalleled accuracy. We also train others to apply the methods that make our Superforecasters so accurate.

Learn more about Good Judgment here.

 

About Good Judgment Open

The largest public forecasting platform of its kind, Good Judgment Open is a crowd forecasting site where you can hone your forecasting skills, learn about the world, and engage with other forecasters. On GJ Open, you can make forecasts about the likelihood of future events and learn how accurate you were and how your accuracy compares with the crowd. Unlike prediction markets and other forecasting sites, you can share your reasoning with other forecasters to challenge your assumptions.

Join GJ Open challenges, collections of questions organized by a theme or topic, which are scored for accuracy. Top performers can compete for a chance to become one of Good Judgment’s professional Superforecasters.

Join the Roche AI Forecasting Challenge

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