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Advanced Judgment & Modeling

Advanced sessions on setting decision thresholds, base rate modeling, and integrating AI into the Superforecasting process

Advanced Superforecasting® Training

Our advanced workshops combine Good Judgment research findings with more than a decade of Superforecaster® know-how. Decision-makers will acquire in-depth skills in setting decision thresholds, applying base rate modeling, and integrating AI into the Superforecasting process.

This hands-on three-hour session builds on the skills you’ve learned in the standard two-day workshop. Workshop graduates are invited to join for a deeper understanding of the Superforecasting process and its applications to your work today and tomorrow.

 

Advanced Judgment & Modeling (Level II Training)

Building up on the standard two-day workshop, where you’ve learned mitigating cognitive biases, teaming (Delphi method), and asking the right questions, Advanced Judgment & Modeling (Level II training) focuses on setting decision thresholds, base rate modeling, and integrating AI into the process.

  • The new modules include

    • Setting decision thresholds: Establishing the true yes/no boundary for executive action
    • Advanced base-rate modeling: Moving beyond intuition and basic base rates to tackle complex decisions and low-probability, high-impact events
    • Sustained calibration: Smart updating and tracking accuracy with our practical playbook
  • More advanced skills

    • Beyond the binomials: Drafting multinomial questions and cluster modeling for big-picture forecasts
    • Practical applications: Use cases and mapping forecasts to different decision categories
    • Integrating AI into the Superforecasting process: Knowing where LLMs pay off the most
  • How this works

    • Exclusive, advanced training for workshop graduates
    • One online 3-hour session, including optional Q&A
    • Good Judgment training professionals and elite Superforecasters lead the session and answer your questions

Three reasons why you should attend a Good Judgment forecasting workshop

Workshop participants boost their accuracy, show an improvement in mitigating cognitive biases, and recommend the workshop to their peers (but maybe not to their competitors).

Which workshop is the right fit for your team?

Get detailed specifics about workshop structures, components, and timing here.

Looking for public workshops?

Looking for a hands-on introduction to Superforecasting? Attend one of our public workshops. Discover how changing your perspective can improve your forecasting accuracy, and practice your new skills in small groups led by professional Superforecasters.

Intrigued?

Stop guessing. Start Superforecasting.

Schedule a consultation to learn how our FutureFirst monitoring tool, custom Superforecasts, and training services can help your organization make better decisions.

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